Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the economic situations of the United States and China in 2026, including their economic indicators, policies, and investment opportunities. It expects the US economy to show a slowdown but not a stall, with the Fed likely to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times. In China, the economy is expected to be low at the beginning and high at the end of 2026, with policies remaining moderately loose. The report is bullish on equity - related assets in 2026, especially favoring technology - growth stocks and the profit - repair direction of "anti - involution" enterprises [46][102][113]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs United States 1.1. Review of 2025 Economic Indicators and Asset Prices - In 2025, the US economy and assets showed a divergence, with weakening economic data but strong asset performance. This was due to loose policies and the rise of AI, and this background will continue into 2026 [10]. 2.1. Entering the Third Year of the Interest - Rate Cut Cycle - In 2025, there were 3 interest - rate cuts totaling 75bp, and the federal funds rate dropped to the range of [3.50% - 3.75%]. In 2026, attention should be paid to the Fed's independence after the chairman's replacement and the Fed's policy expectations in the third year [12]. 2.2. Loose Policies: Intensified Divergence within the Fed - There are internal differences between local and council members and between hawks and doves in the Fed, as well as external differences between the White House's pressure and the Fed's independence. The divergence was intensified in the December vote pattern, as shown by the dot plot [18]. 2.3. Behind the Divergence: The Failure of Monetary Policy - The dual goals point to interest - rate cuts to improve employment. However, AI has squeezed employment, and more interest - rate cuts may further exacerbate this situation. It is estimated that the Fed will cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in 2026, and the federal funds rate is expected to move towards the neutral rate of 3% [21]. 2.4. More Certain and Effective Fiscal Expansion - The "A Great Beautiful Act" includes tax policies (tax cuts of about 3.9 trillion), expenditure cuts (about 1.9 trillion), increased spending (about 0.35 trillion), and raising the debt ceiling from 36.1 trillion to 41.1 trillion dollars [23]. 3.1. Differentiated Investment in the US Economy, with Concentrated AI Investment - The growth rate of US private investment has shown obvious differentiation. Traditional investment demands such as housing and construction have declined, while intellectual property products and equipment have strengthened. The concentrated investment in the AI direction is the main reason [26]. 3.2. The Growth Rate of AI - Related Investment Is Much Higher Than Others - In equipment investment, information - processing equipment, and in intellectual property investment, software investment have maintained high growth rates. The proportion of relevant investment has reached over 25% [32]. 3.3. Continued Decline in US Employment - Non - farm employment and the unemployment rate have continued to weaken. AI has reduced the demand for labor while increasing productivity, leading to a continuous decline in employment [34]. 3.4. Multi - angle Observation of US Employment, Lay - offs, and Structure - Declining demand, accelerated lay - offs, and long - term unemployment together indicate increasing downward pressure on US employment [36]. 3.5. Impact of Weakening Employment - A decline in employment leads to a decrease in income, which affects household spending. Prices of optional durable goods such as cars and rent may be affected, and core inflation may decline, showing the negative correlation between unemployment and inflation [41]. 3.6. The K - shaped Economic Structure in the US - Low - income families are more likely to be affected [43]. 4.1. Mid - term Elections Are a Major Uncertainty - The mid - term elections in 2026 will go through primary elections, final elections, etc. The US will focus on itself, and Sino - US relations will enter a period of relaxation when Trump visits China in April 2026 [44]. 5.1. The Logic of the US Macroeconomic - The rise of AI has intensified resource imbalance, with concentrated AI investment and weakened non - AI investment. Monetary policy is loose but ineffective, leading to idle liquidity. Fiscal policy is loose, and the "Great Beautiful Act" may have various impacts on the economy, such as affecting inflation, the stock market, and the dollar [46]. Economic Indicators - The US economic hard data shows resilience, while soft data slows down. The overall performance slows down but does not stall. The actual GDP growth rate is expected to be 2% in 2026. Inflation indicators continue to slow down, with the inflation expectation dropping to 2.4%. Employment indicators continue to weaken, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.8%. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 50bp - 75bp to around 3% in 2026 [48]. Asset Outlook - Bonds: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is expected to decline by about 25bp. - Exchange rate: The US dollar index may continue to weaken. - Stocks: The US technology sector remains favored in the long term, but there may be increased volatility in the first half of the year. - Commodities: Gold has room for upward movement, oil is bearish, and there are more opportunities for non - ferrous metals [49]. China 1.1. Review of 2025 Economic Indicators and Asset Prices - In 2025, China's economic data was significantly differentiated, with stable economic growth but a significant decline in investment. Inflation indicators deviated significantly, with CPI rising and PPI contracting. The background of economic transformation will continue [54]. 2.1. Pressures in the Economic Transformation Period - In 2025, there were still problems such as insufficient effective demand, high pressure on residents' income, and persistent youth employment issues [56]. 2.2. Development Main Line: Economic Shift towards People's Livelihood - Fiscal policy involves debt monetization, central government support for local government debt, and the central bank's support for central government debt. The central bank continues to buy gold to back the RMB. Monetary policy aims to stabilize the M2/GDP ratio, and the bond market may bottom out and rebound. Industrial policy focuses on developing new - quality productivity, normalizing the real - estate market, and promoting the service industry. Income distribution is tilted towards families, and the government focuses on people's livelihood. The real - estate market is expected to bottom out slowly, and the RMB will fluctuate more with a higher center than in 2025 [58]. 2.3. Stability Main Line: Stabilizing the Supply Chain and Positioning as a Safe Asset - Domestically, China will maintain supply - chain stability by building up inventories of upstream raw materials and keeping the proportion of manufacturing in GDP stable. Externally, it will ensure resource inflows and position itself as a safe asset to attract foreign investment [60]. 3.1. The First Year of the 15th Five - Year Plan - The goals of the 15th Five - Year Plan include economic growth, institutional reform, and technological and industrial upgrading. Policies will remain loose and more targeted. Monetary policy has limited room for interest - rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts, and fiscal policy will be more active, with the deficit rate, special bonds, and special treasury bonds not lower than in 2025 [63]. 3.2. More Precise and Effective Monetary Policy - The direction of monetary policy includes fund - swap facilities, stock - repurchase re - loans, and consumption and housing - loan interest subsidies. The M2/GDP ratio will rise, and there may be one cut each in the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate in 2026, along with the use of structural tools [65][67]. 3.3. A Lighter Fiscal Burden in 2026 - Under the pressure of debt resolution, the bond issuance of the government sector and the growth rate of infrastructure investment have diverged. More than 60% of platforms have cleared their implicit debts. In 2026, the deficit rate, special bonds, and special treasury bonds will not be lower than in 2025, and special bonds can be used for land reserves and the acquisition of existing commercial housing [70]. 4.1. Investment Was the Main Drag on the Economy in 2025 - Investment growth remained low, and investment was the main factor dragging down the overall demand from January to November 2025 [78]. 4.2. Manufacturing and Infrastructure May Receive Support - The profits of the manufacturing industry improved in 2025, while infrastructure investment stalled [81]. 4.3. The Decline in Investment Is the Pain of Economic Transformation - The traditional investment model relying on real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing has high inventory, high debt, and low profits. Now, the focus is on improving production efficiency, and investment is shifting towards people's livelihood, consumption, and the service industry, with an emphasis on quality [84]. 4.4. Close Combination of Investment in Objects and Investment in People - The 15th Five - Year Plan emphasizes the close combination of investment in objects and people. The proportion of people's livelihood - related investment should be increased, and the income - distribution system should be improved [86]. 4.5. Income Growth Should Be Higher Than GDP Growth - The growth rate of residents' income has declined, and it is necessary to continuously improve the income level of the resident sector [88]. 4.6. How to Increase Income Levels - Measures include deepening the income - distribution system reform, tax cuts and fee reductions, and increasing property income [94]. 4.7. The Investment Attribute of the Stock Market Is Recovering - By improving the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital - market system and promoting the coordination of investment and financing functions, the stock market can increase the property income of the resident sector [96]. 4.8. Full Relaxation of Real - Estate Restrictions - The real - estate market is still in a state of "falling prices and volumes" and has not stabilized as expected. Real - estate restriction policies have been fully relaxed, and special - bond funds will support the market [101]. Economic Indicators - In 2026, the economy will be low at the beginning and high at the end. The actual GDP growth rate is expected to be 4.9%. Inflation indicators will rise, with core CPI reaching 1.8% and the decline of PPI narrowing to - 1%. Monetary policy will be moderately loose, with M2 remaining high, and there may be one cut each in interest rates and the reserve - requirement ratio. Fiscal policy will be more active [102]. Asset Outlook - Bonds: The 10 - year Chinese treasury bond is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.9%. - Exchange rate: The RMB exchange rate will rebound passively, with a center around 7. - Stocks: A - shares are still cost - effective, and attention should be paid to technology - growth and undervalued consumer sectors. - Commodities: There are more opportunities for non - ferrous metals and new - energy products, and attention should be paid to products affected by the "anti - involution" policy [106]. Asset Allocation Bonds - US 10 - year Treasury bond yields are expected to decline by about 25bp, and Chinese 10 - year treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.9% [111]. Exchange Rates - The US dollar index may continue to weaken, and the RMB exchange rate will rebound passively, with a center around 7 [111]. Stocks - US technology stocks remain favored in the long term, and A - shares are cost - effective, with attention on technology - growth and undervalued consumer sectors [111]. Commodities - Gold has room for upward movement, oil is bearish, and there are more opportunities for non - ferrous metals and new - energy products [111]. Direction and Structure Judgment Direction Judgment - The report is bullish on equity - related assets in 2026, but the increase may be smaller than in 2025. Sino - US relations will be in a period of relaxation, and domestic A - share markets will have sufficient liquidity, but the impact of liquidity will weaken [113]. Structure Judgment - The report is more optimistic about technology - growth stocks and the profit - repair direction of "anti - involution" enterprises. If incremental policies for real estate and consumption are introduced, undervalued sectors may have opportunities for profit and valuation repair [115].
浙商期货宏观日报-20251231
Zhe Shang Qi Huo·2025-12-31 01:23