格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20251231

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified, and investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2] Summary by Directory Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.20% to $4352.30 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 7.88% to $76.02 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.04% at 986.34 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver closed up 5.36% at 18792 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of December 30, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous day at 1071.99 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 149.46 tons to 16455.42 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 14.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 85.1%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.2%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 48.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 6.5% [1] - In the early morning of the 31st, the Fed's December meeting minutes showed that the FOMC agreed to cut interest rates in the December meeting, but officials had serious differences. If inflation gradually declines as expected, most officials think further rate cuts are appropriate. The committee will start buying short - term Treasury bonds as needed to maintain an adequate supply of reserves and will remove the total limit on the standing repurchase operation [1] Market Logic - The Fed's December meeting minutes showed that the FOMC agreed to cut interest rates in December, but officials had serious differences. The decision - making process reflects the dependence of the future rate - cut rhythm on economic data and the divergence of policy paths. The market's expectation of a rate cut in January next year has remained below 20% recently, and it declined slightly on Tuesday [1] - CME Group raised the performance margins of gold, silver, lithium and other metal futures after the close on December 29, which triggered long - position profit - taking in the precious metals market. On Monday, precious metals fell sharply. On Tuesday, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 149.46 tons, indicating strong buying support for silver [1] - On December 30, the US dollar index rose 0.23% to 98.22. On December 30, COMEX gold rose first and then fell, while COMEX silver rebounded significantly [2] Trading Strategy - Due to the intensified short - term volatility of precious metals, investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2]