格林期货早盘提示：全球经济-20251231

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy is turning weak as the US is adopting a contractionary strategy globally, which will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes [3] - The Fed's uncertainty is expected to peak between July and November 2026, potentially leading to a "flight from US assets" trend [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - The offshore RMB has broken through 6.99 yuan. With the expectation of RMB appreciation against the US dollar in 2026, the settlement speed of export foreign exchange earnings may accelerate [1] - Trump hinted at having a candidate for the next Fed chair, might fire current chair Powell, and is considering suing him for "gross negligence" [1][2] - Trump threatened to support strikes against Iran if it continues to develop ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons [1] - A Bloomberg survey shows that 21 strategists predict an average 9% rise in the S&P 500 index in 2026, but there are warnings about risks [1] - SoftBank will acquire DigitalBridge for about $4 billion in cash, a 15% premium to the last Friday's closing price [1] - There's no "concrete reason to short" silver. Low liquidity, increased margin requirements, and over - bought signals led to the price correction [1] - Passive funds tracking the BCOM index will sell gold and silver futures during re - balancing, and silver faces more concentrated technical selling pressure [1] - Trump will "consider" Zelensky's proposal to extend the 15 - year security guarantee period [1] Global Economic Logic - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2026 and buy $40 billion of short - term bonds monthly, expanding its balance sheet [2] - The US unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, raising concerns about large - scale corporate layoffs as an economic warning signal [2] - Google aims to double AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years [2] - JPMorgan strategists believe that at least $5 trillion is needed for the AI data center construction boom in the next five years [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield rose to 2.0% [2] - The US is releasing a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relations with China and trying to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer divergence, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while middle - and low - income families tighten their belts [2]