贵金属：贵金属日报-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals are currently in an accelerated upward phase. From now until Powell officially steps down as the Fed Chairman in May next year, precious metals may face short - term significant corrections due to the Fed's "inaction". However, this does not signal the end of the current upward cycle for gold and silver. The Trump administration has the motivation to further loosen fiscal policies under the pressure of the mid - term elections, and the Fed will enter a new and more aggressive interest - rate cut cycle after Powell's departure. Currently, the prices of gold and silver have fully reflected the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines in the context of significant price fluctuations and not to open new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 940 - 1001 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16360 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.04% to 986.34 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 5.36% to 18792.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4346.40 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 74.83 dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.14%, and the US dollar index at 98.23 [2]. - Trump mentioned that he is considering suing Fed Chairman Powell and believes Powell should resign. The candidate for the new Fed Chairman will be announced in January [2]. 3.2 Policy Expectations - The selection of the new Fed Chairman has led the market to price in an aggressive easing policy by the Fed next year. The Fed under Powell cut interest rates and expanded the balance sheet in the December meeting, and the dot - plot shows that current Fed officials only expect one 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut next year. However, the market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy are more focused on the selection of the new Fed Chairman. At the end of the year, the market expectations that Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, two members of the Trump camp, will be nominated as the new Fed Chairman have gradually fermented, and both have stated that they will support the interest - rate cut policy desired by Trump. Trump himself has also stated that "those who oppose him will not get the position of Fed Chairman". The Fed is likely to conduct relatively aggressive interest - rate cuts in the second half of next year, which has pushed the international silver price to a new record high [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - Given the current situation, it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the face of significant price fluctuations of precious metals and avoid opening new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 940 - 1001 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16360 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3.4 Data Summary - A detailed summary of key gold and silver data from December 29 - 30, 2025, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, inventories, and precipitation funds of various gold and silver contracts in different markets such as COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc., as well as their daily changes, daily percentage changes, and historical quantiles over the past year [6].