生猪：静待利好兑现

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Low prices stimulating consumption, the late Spring Festival causing demand to be postponed, and the structural shortage of large pigs jointly contributed to the unexpected rebound in pig prices. The logic for short - term price strength remains strong, but as time passes, the structural contradictions are expected to be gradually resolved, and prices are likely to return to the logic of overall oversupply. In the medium term, the logic supporting the current strong pig prices faces the risk of collapse. In the long term, the decline in production capacity will gradually be reflected in pig prices in the second half of next year. Operationally, attention should be paid to the upper pressure of contracts close to the off - season, with the main strategy being to short on rebounds. For long - term, pay attention to the lower support of far - month contracts [2][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Unexpected Strength of Spot after Winter Solstice - Traditionally, before the Winter Solstice, supply and demand are concentrated, and prices may run weakly or decline rapidly. After the Winter Solstice, supply decreases, and prices generally rebound moderately. In January, due to the uninitiated fresh consumption before the Spring Festival, the situation of strong supply and weak demand intensifies, and prices usually decline slowly until the last wave of consumption before the Spring Festival. This year, pig prices were unusually strong before the Winter Solstice and rebounded significantly afterwards. The reasons are: low prices stimulated consumption, the warm winter and the late Spring Festival led to a second peak in slaughter at the end of the year, and the shortage of large pigs intensified the structural contradiction. As of the end of December, the average pig price in Henan was 12.7 yuan/kg, up 1.02 yuan/kg from a week ago, with a growth rate of 8.7%, and the fat - standard price difference increased by 0.36 yuan to 0.9 yuan/kg [4][5] 3.2. Medium - term Basic Supply Remains Large - Since the beginning of 2024, piglets have been profitable for 19 months until September this year. During this period, sow production capacity remained stable or slightly increased, with almost no reduction. It is likely that the basic supply will remain extremely abundant until July next year, and overall pig prices will probably remain under pressure. After July, with the decline in production capacity being reflected in the出栏 volume and the influence of seasonal factors, there is room for improvement in the fundamentals in the second half of next year. From the perspective of piglets, the decline in piglet prices led to negative profits starting from September this year, and the number of piglet births peaked and declined in October. The theoretical出栏 volume is likely to decline from April next year, but due to the large previous base and small initial decline, the pig supply in the first and second quarters of next year may still be huge. After the Spring Festival next year, pig prices will face the traditional combination of high supply and weak demand, with significant upward pressure [10][13] 3.3. The Duration of Structural Benefits May Be Limited - The current strength of pig prices is mainly due to the resonance between consumption stimulated by low prices, demand postponed due to the late Spring Festival, and the structural shortage of large pigs. In the short term, the relatively high fat - standard price difference can drive further pig penning and secondary fattening, supporting the standard pig price. However, in the medium term, as the contradiction of the shortage of large pigs is further resolved, the logic supporting the strong pig prices may collapse, and prices are likely to return to the logic of overall oversupply. Therefore, the factors supporting the strong pig prices are strong but may be short - lived [16]