2026商品年度报告碳酸锂：储能高景气，碳酸锂开启新周期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, lithium carbonate will shift from oversupply to a tight - balance pattern. The significant decline in the industry's inventory coverage days will push up the price center. In the long - term, the peak of the current cycle's production cycle has passed, and the support for energy storage from countries around the world strengthens optimistic expectations, leading to strong speculative demand in the market. However, due to the high supply elasticity, the price increase will be tortuous. The annual price is expected to fluctuate between 90,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton [2][99]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a trend of hitting the bottom and then rebounding. As of December 25, LC2605 closed at 123,520 yuan/ton, a 59% increase from the beginning of the year. The quotes of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate were 115,000 yuan/ton and 113,000 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 52% and 55% from the beginning of the year [6]. - In the first quarter, pre - Spring Festival restocking by downstream and the advancement of demand due to tariff implementation led to a tight spot market. After the Spring Festival, the early resumption of work by leading manufacturers and slow downstream resumption put pressure on the market. In the second quarter, the price dropped rapidly due to the off - season of terminal demand and cost collapse. In the third quarter, the price fluctuated sharply. In the fourth quarter, the price trended upwards due to supply growth being slower than demand growth and the continuous destocking of total inventory [6][7]. 3.2 Demand Side of Lithium Carbonate 3.2.1 New Energy Vehicle Market - In 2025, from January to October, global new energy vehicle sales reached 17.78 million, a 28.1% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 22.7%. The Chinese market maintained growth, with a penetration rate of 46.7%. The European market showed an increasing penetration rate, while the North American market was affected by subsidy withdrawal, with a slowdown in growth [11]. - In 2026, the European new energy vehicle market is expected to maintain high growth, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 30%. The US market will experience a painful period of policy withdrawal and demand adjustment, with an expected sales decline of 10% - 20% and a penetration rate within 10%. The Chinese market is expected to slow down in growth but optimize in structure, with the penetration rate expected to exceed 60% [15][20][29]. 3.2.2 Energy Storage Market - In 2025, the global energy storage market experienced explosive growth, with an expected annual installed capacity demand of 329GWh, an 87% year - on - year increase. The expected compound growth rate from 2025 - 2027 is 86% [30]. - In 2026, the domestic installed capacity is expected to reach 300GWh. The US and European markets also have strong growth potential, and emerging markets such as the Middle East are also growing rapidly [35][38][39]. 3.2.3 Battery Market - In the first three quarters of 2025, the global lithium - battery shipments exceeded 1.2TWh, a 60% year - on - year increase. It is estimated that the shipments in 2025 will exceed 1.7TWh [43]. - In 2026, the total demand for global power and energy - storage batteries is expected to reach 2600 - 2700GWh, a year - on - year increase of over 30%. The demand for energy - storage batteries will grow faster than that of power batteries [46]. 3.2.4 Cathode Materials - In the first three quarters of 2025, the shipments of Chinese cathode materials were expected to be 3.5 million tons, a 53% year - on - year increase. Lithium iron phosphate led the growth, with shipments of 2.575 million tons, a 60.8% year - on - year increase. Ternary materials also increased by 20% [52]. - In 2026, lithium iron phosphate is expected to continue high - growth, with an expected output of 5.8 million tons, a 50% increase from 2025. The demand for high - nickel ternary materials and precursors will also increase [53][60]. 3.3 Supply Side of Lithium Carbonate 3.3.1 Lithium Ore Supply - In 2026, Australian mines are expected to have a 15% year - on - year output increase to 503,000 tons LCE. African mines will benefit from the recovery of lithium prices, and South American salt lakes also have certain production increases. Domestic lithium ore supply is expected to be about 100,000 tons LCE, and the output of domestic salt - lake lithium extraction is expected to be about 228,000 tons LCE [76][78][79]. 3.3.2 Lithium Carbonate Supply - In 2026, new lithium carbonate production capacity will be significantly slowed down, with only 45,000 tons of new capacity to be put into production, mainly in the second half of the year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative domestic lithium carbonate output reached 871,200 tons, a 44% year - on - year increase [81][82]. 3.3.3 Cost and Profit - As of December 19, the average production cost of lithium carbonate was 84,551 yuan/ton. The industry profit was 15,830 yuan/ton. The cost mainly comes from raw material procurement, accounting for over 85% of the production cost [85]. 3.4 Import, Export, and Inventory 3.4.1 Import and Export - In November 2025, China's lithium carbonate import volume was about 22,055 tons, a 8% month - on - month decrease and a 15% year - on - year increase. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 219,000 tons, a 5.8% year - on - year increase [92]. 3.4.2 Inventory - As of December 24, the sample inventory of lithium carbonate was 109,773 tons. The inventory structure has improved, with upstream inventory gradually transferred to downstream and intermediate links. In 2026, attention should be paid to the sustainability of destocking [96].