国泰君安期货所长早读-20251231

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The policy of exempting VAT on the sale of homes held for over 2 years by individuals starting from 2026 will promote the activity of the second - hand housing market and drive the linkage effect between first - hand and second - hand housing [7][8]. - For copper, although price increases may suppress domestic demand, the long - term driving logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments provide opportunities for long - term buying [9][10]. - Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term [11]. - For live pigs, the pressure on supply will be concentrated in January, and there are opportunities to short near - month contracts at high prices [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate - Policy Impact: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes held for over 2 years will be exempt from VAT, while those held for less than 2 years will be taxed at a 3% levy rate. This policy will reduce the cost of housing sales, stimulate housing consumption, and promote the activity of the second - hand housing market [7][8]. Metals Copper - Supply - side: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term benchmark price TC is set at $0/ton, and policies may lead to structural changes in the smelting industry [9]. - Demand - side: The long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong, especially driven by emerging industries such as computing power centers. However, high prices may suppress domestic demand [9][10]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term price adjustments are good entry points for long - term buying [10]. Glass - Short - term Drivers: Environmental protection issues in Hubei may lead to production cuts, the 01 contract's position - to - warrant ratio is unfavorable to shorts, and low prices in Hebei have stimulated market stocking [11]. - Medium - term Outlook: The market may fluctuate due to high inventory levels and weakening basis [11]. Live Pigs - Market Situation: In late December, there was a structural shortage of pigs, but the overall inventory change was small. The price increase in late December led to re - stocking, and the pressure will be postponed to January [12]. - Supply and Demand in January: The group's January sales plan may be slightly reduced, but the need to avoid selling during the Spring Festival will increase supply pressure. Demand in January may not increase significantly, and prices are expected to rise weakly [12]. Other Metals - Gold: Inflation is moderately falling [14]. - Silver: It is in a high - level adjustment [14]. - Zinc: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [14]. - Lead: Inventory increases are pressuring prices [14]. - Tin: Supply has been disrupted again [14]. - Aluminum: It shows a strengthening and fluctuating trend [14]. - Alumina: It continues to be at the bottom [14]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [14]. - Nickel: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [14]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [14]. Chemicals - PX, PTA: They are in a high - level fluctuating market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is recovering while downstream profits are being squeezed [69][72][73]. - MEG: The upside space is limited, and it still faces medium - term pressure. Although there are expectations of load reduction, the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [69][74]. - Rubber: It shows a wide - range fluctuation [75]. - Synthetic rubber: It is falling from a high level [78]. - LLDPE: The upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable [81]. - PP: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market is stabilizing and fluctuating [84]. - Caustic soda: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The market is characterized by high production and high inventory [87][89]. - Paper pulp: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [93]. - Methanol: It is strong in the short - term [102]. - Urea: The fluctuation center is moving up [107]. - Styrene: It shows short - term fluctuations [111]. - Soda ash: The spot market has little change [116]. - LPG: The CP in January is at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [118]. - Propylene: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [118]. - PVC: It shows a weak and fluctuating trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [126][128]. Energy - Fuel oil: It is in a narrow - range adjustment and may remain strong in the short - term [129]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [129]. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): It is fluctuating at a high level. The key issues for the 2602 contract are the height of freight rates, the inflection point time, and the rate of price decline. For the 2604 contract, shorting at high prices has a relatively high probability of winning [131][141][142][143]. Agricultural Products - Short - fiber, Bottle - chip: They are fluctuating at a high level [145]. - Offset - printing paper: It is advisable to wait and see [148]. - Pure benzene: It shows short - term fluctuations [153]. - Palm oil: It has a short - term rebound, but the driving force is weak [156]. - Soybean oil: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to the month - spread opportunities [156]. - Soybean meal: It fluctuates, and holiday risks should be avoided [163]. - Soybean: It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see before the festival [164]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market [167]. - Sugar: It is running weakly [171]. - Cotton: It maintains a fluctuating and strengthening trend [176]. - Eggs: They show short - term fluctuations [181]. - Live pigs: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and the price is strong before the festival [184]. - Peanuts: Positions are being reduced before the festival [189].