国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251231

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Palm Oil: Short - term rebound with weak driving forces [2][4] - Soybean Oil: Mainly trade within a range, focus on spread opportunities between contracts [2][4] - Soybean Meal: Trade in a range, avoid holiday risks [2][11] - Soybean No.1: Hedge risks before the holiday, observe cautiously [2][12] - Corn: Pay attention to the spot market [2][15] - Sugar: Trade weakly [2][19] - Cotton: Maintain a moderately strong oscillatory trend [2][24] - Eggs: Short - term oscillation [2][29] - Hogs: Contradictions continue to accumulate, prices are expected to be strong before the holiday [2][32] - Peanuts: Reduce positions before the holiday [2][37] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,658 yuan/ton with a 1.72% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,644 yuan/ton with a - 0.16% decrease. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 7,878 yuan/ton with a 0.77% increase, and night - session closing price was 7,886 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase [5]. - Macro and Industry News: Private exporters reported selling 13.6 tons of soybeans to China and 23.1 tons to unknown destinations for 2025/2026 delivery. Brazil's December soybean export forecast was revised down to 302 tons from 357 tons, and December soybean meal export forecast was revised down to 187 tons from 200 tons [6][7][8]. - Trend Intensity: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of 0 [10]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Fundamentals: DCE Soybean No.1 2605's daily - session closing price was 4224 yuan/ton with a + 65 (+ 1.56%) increase, and night - session closing price was 4237 yuan/ton with a + 33 (+ 0.78%) increase. DCE Soybean Meal 2605's daily - session closing price was 2778 yuan/ton with a - 10 (- 0.36%) decrease, and night - session closing price was 2771 yuan/ton with a + 3 (+ 0.11%) increase [12]. - Macro and Industry News: On December 30, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to the promising South American soybean harvest. Private exporters reported sales of soybeans to China and unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery. Brazil's soybean harvesting in some states and Argentina's soybean planting progress were reported [12][14]. - Trend Intensity: Both soybean meal and soybean No.1 have a trend intensity of 0 [14]. Corn - Fundamentals: The price of Guangdong Shekou was 2,440 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase. C2601's daily - session closing price was 2,303 yuan/ton with a 1.23% increase, and night - session closing price was 2,295 yuan/ton with a - 0.35% decrease [16]. - Macro and Industry News: The northern corn bulk - ship collection price increased slightly, and the container - shipped first - class grain price also rose. Import prices of some grains were reported [17]. - Trend Intensity: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [18]. Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 14.84 cents/pound with a - 0.42 decrease. The mainstream spot price was 5340 yuan/ton with no change [19]. - Macro and Industry News: As of December 15, the 25/26 sugar - making season's sugar production in India increased by 28.3% year - on - year. Brazil's November sugar export was 330 tons, a 9 - ton decrease year - on - year. China's November sugar import was 44 tons (- 9 tons) [19]. - Trend Intensity: Sugar has a trend intensity of - 1 [22]. Cotton - Fundamentals: CF2605's daily - session closing price was 14,560 yuan/ton with a 0.87% increase, and night - session closing price was 14570 yuan/ton with a 0.07% - 0.15% change [24]. - Macro and Industry News: Cotton spot trading was mostly quiet. Cotton yarn prices were stable overall, but downstream demand was weak. ICE cotton futures fell for the third consecutive day [25]. - Trend Intensity: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [26]. Eggs - Fundamentals: Egg 2601's closing price was 3,072 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.03% increase. Egg 2602's closing price was 2,938 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.03% decrease [29]. - Trend Intensity: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [30]. Hogs - Fundamentals: The Henan spot price was 12530 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase. The futures prices of different contracts showed various changes, and trading volume and open interest also changed [33]. - Market Information: Several companies registered warehouse receipts in December [34]. - Trend Intensity: Hogs have a trend intensity of 0 [35]. Peanuts - Fundamentals: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,400 yuan/ton with no change. PK601's closing price was 8,078 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase [37]. - Spot Market Focus: Peanut prices in different regions were stable, with varying levels of supply and demand [38]. - Trend Intensity: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [39].