宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025年12月31日）-20251231

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience high - level fluctuations, with the supply - demand contradiction accumulating and the upward driving force being limited [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "fluctuation and weakening", and the overall view is "high - level fluctuation". The core logic is the accumulation of supply - demand contradictions and limited upward driving force [1]. 3.2. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continues to accumulate, with inventory rising at a high level. Steel mill production is stable, terminal consumption of ore remains at a low level, and the profit situation of steel mills has limited improvement, so weak demand is likely to put pressure on ore prices, although steel mills have replenished stocks to some extent. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals have declined slightly, while miners' shipments have reached a new high for the year. Overall, ore supply remains high. With the fermentation of positive factors, the ore price has returned to a high level, but the demand is weakening and supply is high, so the price will maintain a high - level fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [3].