碳酸锂：以旧换新补贴符合预期，动力需求仍有支撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The subsidy for the new-for-old replacement of lithium carbonate meets expectations, and the power demand still has support [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on implementing large-scale equipment updates and new-for-old replacement policies for consumer goods in 2026, with support for automobile scrapping and replacement updates, including different subsidy standards for purchasing new energy and fuel vehicles [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 119,540 yuan, the trading volume is 9,368 lots, and the open interest is 15,739 lots; for the 2605 contract, the closing price is 121,580 yuan, the trading volume is 459,530 lots, and the open interest is 511,309 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt volume is 19,491 lots, with an increase of 1,300 lots compared to the previous day [1] - Basis: The basis between the spot and the 2601 contract is -1,540 yuan, and the basis between the 2601 and 2605 contracts is -2,040 yuan [1] - Raw Materials: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 1,545 US dollars, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 3,400 yuan [1] - Lithium Salts: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 118,000 yuan, and the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 115,000 yuan [1] - Related Products in the Industrial Chain: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 45,220 yuan, and the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) is 166,450 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price is 115,809 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,204 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 118,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 115,000 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous working day [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral stance [3]