中泰期货晨会纪要-20251231

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Market trends vary across different sectors. For example, in the stock market, A - shares showed a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index up. In the futures market, different commodities have different trends, such as some being in a bearish trend, some in a bullish trend, and some in a volatile state [11]. - Policy factors have a significant impact on various industries. For instance, the 2026 national subsidy policy has been adjusted, and the real - estate value - added tax policy has changed, which will affect related industries [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Information - The 2026 national subsidy program is officially released, with 62.5 billion yuan in the first - batch funds for consumer goods trade - ins. The subsidy objects and ranges are adjusted, and the subsidy ratio and upper limit for some products are changed [6]. - The VAT collection rate for personal housing sales is adjusted. For housing sold within 2 years of purchase, the VAT rate is reduced from 5% to 3%, and housing sold after 2 years is exempt from VAT [6]. - The Central Rural Work Conference emphasizes the importance of "Three Rural Issues" in 2026 and the need to promote rural revitalization and food production [7]. - The Ministry of Education plans to introduce policies for AI education and application in the next year [7]. - The "Justice Mission - 2025" exercise of the Eastern Theater Command of the PLA conducts various military drills [7]. - The 2025 digital economy in China is expected to reach 49 trillion yuan, accounting for about 35% of GDP, with an increase in the proportion of the core digital economy industries [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promotes the innovation and development of the national new - type Internet exchange center [8]. - The secondary - market premium of Pop Mart's "Labubu" IP has ended, and resale profits have disappeared [8]. - The Fed's December meeting minutes show that the FOMC agreed to cut interest rates, but there were significant differences among officials [8]. - India's GDP has reached 4.18 trillion US dollars, becoming the world's fourth - largest economy, and is expected to reach 7.3 trillion US dollars by 2030 [9]. - The Bank of Korea modifies the currency and liquidity statistics, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 in October drops from 8.7% to 5.2% under the new standard [9]. - OPEC + is expected to adhere to the plan to suspend production increases [9]. - Indonesia plans to cut production in 2026 to better match supply and demand [9]. 2. Stock Index Futures - The market's upward trend has slowed but shows no sign of ending. Unilateral trading can consider flexible stop - profit or arbitrage hedging [10]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - Short - and medium - term bonds may be volatile and bullish, but the odds are more important than the direction. The market is waiting for the final PMI data and the first - quarter treasury bond issuance plan. The overall market sentiment is weak, and the short - term bonds are supported by funds, while the ultra - long - term bonds are still weak [12]. 4. Black Commodities 4.1. Steel and Iron Ore - Policy has little interference with steel production, which is relatively bearish for finished products and steel mill profits. The downstream demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for rolled products is good. The supply of steel mills is stable, and the inventory is high. The price of steel is expected to be volatile, and iron ore should be shorted on rallies [14][15]. 4.2. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise in the short term but are restricted by factors such as coal mine production, safety supervision, and downstream demand. There is a potential for a phased rebound, but the space and strength are limited [17]. 4.3. Ferroalloys - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the overall idea is to be short on rallies. The current industrial end of manganese silicon lacks driving forces, and the speculative demand is almost zero. Ferrosilicon has greater price elasticity, so attention should be paid to position management [18]. 4.4. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see. For glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The supply of soda ash is expected to gradually recover, and the supply of glass may be reduced through cold - repair, which may improve the supply - demand pattern [19]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 5.1. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the price may adjust downward due to weakening demand expectations in the first quarter, but in the long term, the demand is positive. Pay attention to buying opportunities during the correction [21]. 5.2. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has some room for valuation repair but is still under pressure for rebound. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies. Polysilicon can be bought on dips, but operate with caution due to large price fluctuations [23]. 6. Agricultural Products 6.1. Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. Supported by pre - holiday replenishment demand, the cotton futures price is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. 6.2. Sugar - After the domestic sugar market enters the season of strong supply and demand and the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounds to repair the valuation, pay attention to the pressure from hedging positions. It is advisable to wait and see or take a slightly short - term bearish operation [27]. 6.3. Eggs - The supply - demand pattern of eggs is still loose. Before the Spring Festival, the upside space of the spot price is limited. The far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a post - festival inventory "gap" but have a high valuation, so it is advisable to wait and see [29]. 6.4. Apples - The apple futures price is expected to be volatile. The current market shows limited transactions in the production areas and slow sales in the sales areas. Pay attention to the price changes in the sales areas [31]. 6.5. Corn - Pay attention to the grain - selling sentiment after New Year's Day and whether the policy - grain auction will be implemented. The corn price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [33]. 6.6. Red Dates - The market is in a stage of new - product arrival, with supply pressure. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the sales rhythm and purchasing mentality in the sales areas [33]. 6.7. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is driven up by supply - demand mismatch but is not expected to continue to rise significantly. Consider shorting the main contract on rallies [34]. 7. Energy and Chemicals 7.1. Crude Oil - The crude oil supply is in surplus, and the price is mainly driven downward. Geopolitical issues have a phased impact. The oil price is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to geopolitical conflicts in Venezuela and the Middle East [34]. 7.2. Fuel Oil - The supply - demand structure of fuel oil is loose, and the price follows the oil price. Geopolitical and macro factors are the main drivers, and the inventory is increasing [37]. 7.3. Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak downstream demand. The price may have a small - scale rebound due to upstream losses but has no strong upward driving force. It is advisable to view it with a bullish - volatile mindset [38]. 7.4. Rubber - Reduce long positions on rallies and hold the remaining positions for observation. Pay attention to the raw material supply in Thailand, the approaching end of the cutting season in the northeast, domestic demand, and macro factors [39]. 7.5. Synthetic Rubber - The short - term sentiment fluctuates significantly. Be cautious about chasing up on a single - side basis. It is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions. Pay attention to factors such as butadiene, butadiene rubber plants, downstream purchasing sentiment, and policy changes [40]. 7.6. Methanol - The actual supply - demand situation of methanol has slightly improved. In the short term, there may be some support, and the near - month contract can be viewed with a bullish - volatile mindset. The far - month contract can be gradually considered for a slightly long - side allocation after the inventory is smoothly reduced [40][41]. 7.7. Caustic Soda - Take a bearish view of the near - month contract and dynamically hold long positions in the far - month 05 contract [42]. 7.8. Asphalt - The price of asphalt is expected to have a larger fluctuation range. The future focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [43]. 7.9. Polyester Industry Chain - The supply - demand of the polyester chain shows signs of weakening, and the market is in a short - term adjustment. Consider the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between the 5 - and 9 - month contracts of PX and PTA [44]. 7.10. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The import cost supports the LPG price, and the futures price fluctuates between the fundamentals and the delivery logic. The market is expected to be volatile due to factors such as high import costs and large warehouse - receipt pressure [45][46]. 7.11. Pulp - The fundamentals of pulp are gradually improving, but there may be pressure from hedging positions. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. If the spot price is stable and there are deliverable long - term goods with a suitable cost, consider selling out - of - the - money call options on the 03 contract [47]. 7.12. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly bearish, and the spot price has temporarily stabilized. The market is expected to be weakly balanced in terms of supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to be volatile [48]. 7.13. Urea - The urea futures have fully priced in the expectation of post - holiday demand recovery. On the last trading day of 2025, view it with a volatile mindset [49].