节前资金流出，铂钯继续大幅回调

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - On December 31, platinum and palladium prices continued to decline significantly. The closing price of the main platinum contract on GFEX was 589.85 yuan/gram, a 13% drop, and the closing price of the main palladium contract was 447.45 yuan/gram, also a 13% drop. The approaching New Year's holiday led to weak market sentiment and capital outflows, causing the sharp decline [1]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of platinum are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive. The price of platinum is expected to fluctuate with an upward trend. The supply - demand situation of palladium shows that although it is loose in the long - term, the short - term spot shortage and favorable macro - environment suggest that the palladium price will also fluctuate with an upward trend. However, due to the sharp price fluctuations in the short - term and the approaching holiday, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term. The long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets are recommended to be held or increased, and the long - platinum and short - palladium positions can be held or temporarily liquidated for profit [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - Price Movement: On December 31, the main platinum contract on GFEX closed at 589.85 yuan/gram, down 13% [1]. - Main Logic: After the price correction, the domestic - foreign price difference of platinum has narrowed. As of the close on December 31, the domestic closing time of the main platinum contract on GFEX had a premium of 35.16 yuan/gram over the NYMEX platinum (tax - included), still higher than the import cost, so there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity and the price difference is expected to converge in the future. But due to issues like hedging quota limitations, the short - term price difference may remain high. In terms of supply, South Africa, the major producer of platinum - group metals, still faces risks of power supply and extreme weather. In terms of demand, the platinum market is in a structural expansion stage. Demand in the automotive catalyst field is relatively stable, the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point, and jewelry and investment demand are expanding. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will further increase the long - term price elasticity [2]. - Outlook: The price of platinum is expected to fluctuate with an upward trend. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term due to sharp price fluctuations and the approaching holiday. The long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets are recommended to be held or increased, and the long - platinum and short - palladium positions can be held or temporarily liquidated for profit [2]. Palladium - Price Movement: On December 31, the main palladium contract on GFEX closed at 447.45 yuan/gram, down 13% [1]. - Main Logic: The geopolitical situation in Russia is the key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary supply shortage in other regions. In terms of demand, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate - cut cycle provides some support for the palladium price [3]. - Outlook: The price of palladium is expected to fluctuate with an upward trend. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term due to sharp price fluctuations and the approaching holiday. The long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets are recommended to be held or increased, and the long - platinum and short - palladium positions can be held or temporarily liquidated for profit [3]. Commodity Index (December 30, 2025) - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index is 2343.82, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index is 2683.42, down 0.17%; the industrial product index is 2271.47, up 0.56% [49]. - Non - ferrous Metal Index: On December 30, 2025, the non - ferrous metal index was 2675.54. The daily increase was - 0.03%, the increase in the past 5 days was + 1.47%, the increase in the past month was + 6.49%, and the increase from the beginning of the year to the present was + 15.91% [51].