震荡运?为主，关注钢?复产与下游补库节奏

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy tone of large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in in 2026 is positive. The steel market is in the off - season with inventory reduction, and the fundamentals have limited contradictions. The iron ore has high inventory and potential storage fee pressure, and the coke and coal markets are affected by factors such as production resumption expectations and supply - demand changes. The glass and soda ash markets are facing supply - demand imbalances [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The iron water output is basically stable, the port inventory is continuously accumulating, and the upstream - downstream game is strong. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate. The spot price is weak, and the port trading volume has increased [2][9]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. The steel mills' inventory is high, and the restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel has limited upward momentum, and the spot market is expected to follow the price cut of leading steel enterprises in East China [2][11]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The cost of coke has shown signs of stabilization. After the four - round price cut is implemented, the spot price is expected to stabilize, and the futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal. As the downstream winter storage replenishment starts, the supply - demand structure may gradually tighten [2][13]. - Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the winter storage intensity increases, and the supply pressure will be alleviated. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2][13]. 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: With the expected new supply in Inner Mongolia, the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is expected to be further loosened. The cost still supports the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the medium term [3][18]. - Ferrosilicon: Low supply and low inventory support the price of ferrosilicon, but the price cut of coke restricts its upward space. The demand has not increased significantly, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [3][19]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of the mid - and downstream is moderately high, and the supply - demand is currently in excess. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price; otherwise, the price will rise [3][14]. - Soda ash: The overall supply - demand is in excess. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - excess pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline [3][17].