Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile trend at the end of the year. Various factors such as policy, supply - demand, and geopolitical situation affect different sectors. For example, the stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend before the end of the year due to sector rotation; the bond market sentiment is average with limited new information and is waiting for the release of official PMI data; different commodity futures also show different trends based on their own fundamentals and external factors [21][24]. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: The market closes steadily. The index shows a volatile upward trend due to sector rotation. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct IM/IC futures - ETF arbitrage when the discount widens, and use a bull spread for options [21][22]. - Treasury Futures: The performance at the close is differentiated. The market is waiting for the official PMI data. It is recommended to hold short positions in TS and TF lightly and wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: There is still supply pressure, and the market shows a small - scale shock. It is recommended to lay out a small number of long positions, narrow the MRM spread, and use a short straddle strategy for options [28]. - Sugar: The international sugar price drops sharply, and the domestic price follows weakly. It is expected to oscillate near the current platform. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options [33][34]. - Oilseeds and Oils: There is still a lack of obvious drivers, and the rebound space may be limited. It is recommended to hold a light position before the festival, go short after the rebound, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The spot price rises, but the futures price falls from a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 03 and 07 contracts, narrow the 03 corn - starch spread, and wait and see for options [39]. - Hogs: The supply pressure decreases, and the spot price continues to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - Peanuts: The spot price is stable, and the futures price shows a narrow - range shock. It is recommended that the 05 contract oscillates at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [47]. - Eggs: The demand slightly recovers, but the price drops. It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips and wait and see for arbitrage and options [51]. - Apples: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. It is recommended to oscillate in the short - term range, go long on the 1 contract and short on the 10 contract for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [56]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The new cotton sales are good, and the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended that the US cotton oscillates in the range, the Zhengzhou cotton oscillates strongly with a possible short - term callback risk, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [60]. Black Metals - Steel: The raw material replenishment starts, and the steel price maintains a range - bound shock. It is recommended to maintain the shock trend, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - screw spread, and wait and see for options [62][63]. - Coking Coal and Coke: They oscillate and wait for new drivers. It is recommended to wait and see mainly or go long on dips lightly, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [66][67]. - Iron Ore: The market expectation is repeated, and the price oscillates. It is recommended to oscillate in the short - term [69]. - Ferroalloys: The supply - demand margin is expected to improve, and the cost drives the price. It is recommended to go long on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [72]. Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: They oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [76]. - Platinum and Palladium: Pay attention to position management before the New Year's Day holiday. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage, and wait and see for options [80][81][82]. - Copper: The short - term fluctuation intensifies. It is recommended to control the position, go long on dips in the long - term, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [83]. - Alumina: It oscillates mainly after the convergence of the warehouse receipt registration profit. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [87]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: It oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips, pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of buying spot delivery products and shorting futures, and wait and see for options [91]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It oscillates at a high level with the sector. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [94]. - Zinc: Control the position reasonably before the holiday. It is recommended to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [96]. - Lead: Pay attention to the impact of funds on the price and control the position reasonably before the holiday. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and hold the rest, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [99]. - Nickel: The news of Indonesia's reduction of nickel ore quotas boosts the price. It is recommended to treat it as an upward trend before a significant inventory build - up, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [100][101][102]. - Stainless Steel: It follows the nickel price and runs strongly. It is recommended to follow the nickel price to go long and wait and see for arbitrage [105]. - Industrial Silicon: It rebounds in the short - term and goes short on rallies in the medium - term. It is recommended to go short on rallies, conduct long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [106]. - Polysilicon: The long - term fundamentals are favorable, but the short - term trading volume shrinks. It is recommended to be cautious, conduct long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell put options [108]. - Lithium Carbonate: The subsidy policy boosts the sentiment. It is recommended to control the position and be cautious, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [110]. - Tin: Some long - position funds take profits, and the price drops sharply. It is recommended to oscillate widely after the sharp drop and wait and see for options [113]. Shipping - Container Shipping: The MSK's price increase slightly exceeds expectations, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. It is recommended to take most profits on long positions of the EC2602 contract and hold the rest lightly, and wait and see for arbitrage [114][115]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The market trading is light at the end of the year, and geopolitical conflicts cause fluctuations. It is recommended to oscillate widely, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [117][118]. - Asphalt: The raw material contradiction is difficult to resolve, and the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [123]. - Fuel Oil: The near - end fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak. It is recommended to go short, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [126]. - LPG: The upward space is limited. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [130]. - PX & PTA: The polyester sales and cost weaken, and the price drops from a high level. It is recommended to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [132]. - BZ & EB: The pure benzene inventory build - up pressure slows down, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to oscillate strongly, conduct short - pure benzene and long - styrene arbitrage, and wait and see for options [136]. - Ethylene Glycol: The port inventory continues to rise. It is recommended to oscillate widely in the short - term and weakly in the medium - term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [139]. - Short - Fiber: The processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [141]. - Bottle Chips: The supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [143]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, and the downstream product profits are differentiated. It is recommended to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell both call and put options [146]. - Plastic PP: The PP inventory build - up rate slows down. It is recommended to hold long positions of the L 2605 contract, wait and see for the PP 2605 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage and wait and see, and sell and hold the PP2605 put option [148][149]. - PVC: It oscillates mainly. It is recommended to rebound continuously, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [152]. - Methanol: It rises strongly. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage, and sell put options on dips [154][155]. - Urea: It oscillates widely. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant policies and wait and see for relevant operations [157][158]. - Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber: The global economic data continues to improve. It is recommended to go short in the short - term, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [162]. - Butadiene Rubber: The chemical industry production slowdown continues. It is recommended to hold short positions of the BR 03 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [165].
银河期货每日早盘观察-20251231
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-12-31 02:38