国泰君安期货白糖：偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the sugar industry is "Weak Operation" [1] Core View - The sugar price is expected to run weakly, and the trend strength is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 14.84 cents/pound, down 0.42 cents year-on-year. The mainstream spot price is 5340 yuan/ton, unchanged year-on-year. The futures main contract price is 5258 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan year-on-year [1] - The 15 spread is 13 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan year-on-year. The 59 spread is -17 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan year-on-year. The mainstream spot basis is 82 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan year-on-year [1] Macro and Industry News - As of December 15, the sugar production in India in the 2025/2026 season increased by 28.3% year-on-year. Brazil exported 3.3 million tons of sugar in November, a year-on-year decrease of 90,000 tons. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November, a decrease of 90,000 tons [1] - Attention should be paid to the changes in China's import policies for sugar syrup and premixed powder [1] Domestic Market - CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 2025/2026 season to be 11.7 million tons (previously 11.2 million tons), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previously 15.9 million tons), and imports to be 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of September, the national sugar production in the 2024/2025 season was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons. The cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons, an increase of 870,000 tons. The cumulative sugar sales ratio was 93.9%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points [2] - As of the end of November, China's cumulative sugar imports in the 2025/2026 season were 1.19 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons [2] International Market - ISO expects the global sugar supply to have a surplus of 163,000 tons in the 2025/2026 season (previously a shortage of 23,000 tons), and a shortage of 292,000 tons in the 2024/2025 season [3] - As of December 1, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/2026 season decreased by 1.92 percentage points year-on-year, with a cumulative sugar production of 39.9 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons. The cumulative MIX was 51.12%, a year-on-year increase of 2.78 percentage points [3] - As of December 15, the sugar production in India in the 2025/2026 season was 7.79 million tons, an increase of 1.72 million tons [3] - As of December 27, the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 2025/2026 season was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 240,000 tons [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of sugar is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [4]