碳酸锂：博弈降温区间震荡企稳，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The price of finished products will move in a downward trend with a weak performance, and it is expected to move in a shock - consolidation manner [1][3]. - The price of lithium carbonate will experience reduced market gaming and stabilize in a range - bound shock, focusing on market gaming and marginal supply - demand changes [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Finished Products - Production Disruption: During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown period [2]. - Real Estate Transaction: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - Price Trend: The price of finished products continued to decline in a shock on the previous day, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, causing the price center to move down. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3]. - Outlook: It is expected to move in a shock - consolidation manner, and future attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate - Futures Market: On the previous day, the lithium carbonate futures showed a wide - range shock. The main contract closed at 121,580 yuan/ton, with trading volume shrinking to 459,500 lots and an open interest of 511,300 lots. The market gaming significantly decreased. The net short position of the main contract continued, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased [2]. - Spot Market: The average price of electric lithium carbonate remained at 118,000 yuan/ton, with a negative basis of - 3,580 yuan/ton. Upstream lithium salt producers' spot sales are still limited, while downstream material producers have certain rigid - demand procurement and restocking behavior, and the overall market trading has slightly improved [2]. - Supply and Demand: In terms of supply, the weekly start - up rate and output of SMM lithium carbonate increased by 0.53% week - on - week, with a slowdown in growth. In terms of demand, short - term demand slightly decreased, while long - term demand was firmly supported. The production of ternary and lithium iron decreased by 0.67% and 1.42% respectively week - on - week, and inventory continued to decline [3]. - Inventory: The total weekly inventory decreased by 0.59% week - on - week and increased by 1.97% year - on - year, with a slowdown in the de - stocking slope. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. The social inventory in four regions increased by 3.30% week - on - week, with a phased inventory build - up, and was 48.79% lower year - on - year, indicating a tight inventory situation with a weakened price support [3]. - Policy: On December 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a document to continue the 2026 automobile trade - in subsidy policy, which, together with a series of policies, supports long - term supply - demand balance. In the short term, supervision has tightened, and the futures price is expected to maintain a shock - consolidation trend [4]. - Outlook: It is expected to stabilize in a range - bound shock, and future attention should be paid to macro - policies, production capacity release progress, downstream demand resilience and high - price acceptance, sample inventory de - stocking slope, and capital and sentiment [4].