华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251231

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, while the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong at a high level in the short term [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival, from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop in mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, with the price hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, as the New Year holiday approaches, market trading is light. After the December 9 - 10 meeting, six policymakers opposed interest rate cuts, and the Fed's next meeting is on January 27 - 28, with investors expecting rates to remain unchanged [2] - On the supply side, new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia are ramping up production, and a new project in Inner Mongolia was successfully energized on December 20, so the daily output is expected to continue to increase [3] - High prices inhibit downstream demand, and with increased environmental control in the Central Plains, some local aluminum processing enterprises have shut down, and the spot demand has shrunk, with production expected to resume after the New Year's Day holiday, and the开工 rate has declined [3] - The comprehensive PMI of China's aluminum processing industry in December was 42.4%, below the boom - bust line, indicating a contraction cycle. Among them, the PMI of the aluminum plate and strip industry was 36.3%, hitting a new low [3] - On Monday, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 645,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - Aluminum oxide and electrolytic aluminum enterprises have mostly completed long - term order signing. Attention should be paid to possible alumina enterprise production cuts due to profit compression, and electrolytic aluminum is expected to be strong in the short term [4]