CP官价上涨超预期，关注成本端变动

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report The supply of the propylene market may be temporarily tight in the short term, while the demand recovery is limited. The cost side has strengthened recently, and the subsequent focus is on cost changes and PDH device shutdowns. It is recommended to cautiously go long on hedging at low prices [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene's main contract closing price is 5793 yuan/ton (+12), the East China spot price is 5900 yuan/ton (+50), the North China spot price is 5725 yuan/ton (+0), the East China basis is 107 yuan/ton (+38), and the North China basis is -285 yuan/ton (-127) [2] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene's operating rate is 75% (+1%), China's propylene CFR - Japan's naphtha CFR is 207 US dollars/ton (+8), propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 38 US dollars/ton (+7), and the import profit is -368 yuan/ton (+0) [2] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 38% (+0.69%), production profit is -25 yuan/ton (+0); propylene oxide operating rate is 74% (-2%), production profit is 372 yuan/ton (+230); n-butanol operating rate is 80% (+2%), production profit is 489 yuan/ton (+50); octanol operating rate is 85% (+3%), production profit is 806 yuan/ton (+0); acrylic acid operating rate is 80% (+0%), production profit is 286 yuan/ton (-36); acrylonitrile operating rate is 80% (+0%), production profit is -565 yuan/ton (-96); phenol - acetone operating rate is 79% (+3%), production profit is -902 yuan/ton (+0) [2] 4. Propylene Inventory - The in - factory inventory is 46010 tons (-550) [2]