潮退方显岸礁固，火淬乃知真金存：2026年黑色商品年度策略报告双焦-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal and coke (double - coking) market in 2026 is expected to be under overall pressure, showing a pattern of "wide - range fluctuations and a gradual decline in the center of gravity". The core logic lies in the continuous game between the definite contraction of demand and the structural support of supply [3]. - The probability of a trend - based unilateral market for double - coking in 2026 is low. It is recommended to adopt an interval - fluctuation approach in operation, focusing on the actual demand of downstream finished products, changes in high - quality coal inventories, and the strength of support near the cost line, while also seizing the annual trading rhythm according to seasonal patterns [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis 1.1 Market行情回顾 - In 2025, the coking coal market showed a typical "bottom - finding - rebound - peak - decline" cycle. From the "924" market in 2024, coking coal futures started a downward trend, with the monthly line closing down for eight consecutive months, a cumulative decline of over 55%. The weighted index hit the annual low at the end of May, a new low since 2017. From June to July, driven by market expectations of "anti - involution and capacity reduction", the market rebounded strongly, and coking coal futures led the black - series and bulk commodities, with a cumulative increase of over 80%, significantly higher than the performance of rebar, iron ore, and coke during the same period. After about three months of high - level fluctuations, the market peaked at the end of October and then entered a downward - fluctuation channel until the end of the year [8]. - The spot and futures markets moved in the same direction but with significant price separation. The main inflection points were dominated by fundamentals, and the continuous high - basis structure highlighted the deep game between the cost support in the spot market and the bearish expectations of weakening future demand in the futures market [8]. 1.2 Coking Coal Supply - Demand Analysis 1.2.1 Supply Overview: Controllable Total Quantity, Limited Increment, and Diminishing Fluctuations - From January to November in 2025, the cumulative domestic raw coal production was 44.0 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. In November, the raw coal production was 4.3 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. It is expected that the annual raw coal production will exceed 48.0 billion tons, and the raw coal supply is relatively stable. From January to October, the total supply of coking coal (including imports) was 4.91 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.01%. Since July 2025, due to "anti - involution" and coal - mine over - production inspections, the domestic supply has tightened, and the operating rates of mines and coal - washing plants have remained at a low level compared to the same period [11]. - In 2026, coal production is expected to continue the production inertia since the second half of 2025, with a possible slight decline compared to 2025. The total supply is expected to be "controllable in total quantity, limited in increment, and with diminishing fluctuations". The supply - side price driver will shift from "quantitative change" to relying more on "structural disturbances" and demand - side changes [11]. 1.2.2 Coking Coal Imports: The Long - Term Agreement Price of Mongolian Coal Has Become an Important "Price Anchor" in the Market - From January to November 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports were 104.86 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. In November, the import volume was 10.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7%. Mongolia and Russia were the main sources of support. Mongolia's cumulative imports were 53.36 million tons (accounting for 50.9% of the total), with a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, and Russia's also increased by 4.6%. The import reduction mainly came from US coal [20]. - Although the total imports of Mongolian coal have increased, the proportion of high - quality prime coking coal available for futures delivery has been continuously low. The current long - term agreement price of Mongolian coal has become an important "price anchor" in the market. It is expected that the long - term agreement price will increase by $8 - 10 per ton in the first quarter, corresponding to a cost of about 800 yuan per ton and a converted warehouse - receipt cost of about 950 yuan per ton on the futures market. The adjustment window and amplitude of the long - term agreement price will be core factors affecting the subsequent price range. The cross - border railway planned to open in 2027 may have an impact on the market in 2026, and there is a risk that it may lead to a reduction in the actual deliverable resources in the Chinese market [21][23]. 1.2.3 Overview of Thermal Coal: Policy Sets the Tone, and Price Ratio Finds the Anchor - In 2025, the price trend of thermal coal was similar to that of coking coal, showing a V - shaped "bottom - finding - rebound" pattern. The price ratio between coking coal and thermal coal (coking - to - thermal ratio) has been continuously declining. Since the second quarter of 2025, the coking coal price has deviated significantly from the normal level, and the coking - to - thermal ratio reached a minimum of around 1.16 [29]. - From January to November 2025, China's cumulative thermal coal imports were 312.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6%. It is expected that the annual imports will be about 345 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 14%. The import reduction mainly came from Indonesia and Australia. On the demand side, from January to November, the cumulative total social power generation was 8,856.7 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%, while the thermal power generation was 5,712.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The proportion of thermal power in the total power generation has been declining since February 2025, reaching 64.50% in November, the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [30]. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the signing and performance supervision of medium - and long - term contracts for thermal coal supply in 2026, which refines the price mechanism, clearly differentiates between production areas and ports, and introduces a more specific "benchmark price + fluctuation" mechanism and reasonable regional price ranges. Stricter performance requirements are set. The stable price of thermal coal may have a synergistic effect on the coking coal market, promoting the coking coal price to stabilize in a reasonable range [31]. 1.3 Coking Coal Inventory and Profit 1.3.1 Coking Coal Inventory: Not Low in Total Quantity but Differentiated in Structure, with Enhanced Overall Elasticity - In 2025, the coking coal inventory showed a clear transfer from "mines and ports to downstream". The port inventory was at an absolute high at the beginning of the year but then continuously decreased, while the inventories of downstream steel mills and coking plants significantly rebounded from a low level since the end of the second quarter [40]. - In 2026, although the total import target of Mongolian coal is expected to increase, the proportion of high - quality prime coking coal available for delivery is insufficient. The total inventory may remain at a medium - to - high level, but the high - quality coal that meets the delivery standards may be structurally tight. The port inventory will play a more critical regulatory role, and its fluctuations will more sensitively reflect the game of multiple factors such as "Mongolian coal customs clearance volume, auctions, long - term agreement arrivals, and potential resource diversion to overseas markets". The downstream is likely to maintain low inventories and purchase on demand, and it is difficult for steel mills and coking plants to accumulate large - scale inventories [40]. 1.3.2 Coal Profits: The Industry Is Deeply in Historic Huge Losses, and a Survival Game Is Being Played Below the Cost Line - Since the high - profit cycle in 2021, the coal industry has entered a downward channel, and the total profit has turned significantly negative year - on - year since 2023, indicating a systematic weakening of the industry's profitability. The proportion of loss - making enterprises has continued to rise, and since the first half of 2025, the proportion of loss - making coal enterprises has soared, reaching a historical high of 55.58% in June [50]. - Against the background of widespread industry losses, the cost - support effect will be significantly enhanced. The long - term agreement cost of Mongolian coal has become an important "price anchor" in the market, and the survival pressure on high - cost mines will increase, which may accelerate the industry reshuffle. In 2026 and the future, the coking coal industry will play a game around "structural supply contradictions" and "industry - wide cost lines" under the framework of "shrinking total demand" [52]. Chapter 2: Coke Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Market行情回顾 - The coke futures price was highly correlated with that of coking coal. Since June 2025, with the strong rebound of coking coal futures, the cumulative increase of coke futures was more than 40%. The spot prices at ports and production areas increased by about 30% and 35% respectively. In the fourth quarter, the market turned into wide - range fluctuations, with the weighted index running in the range of 1,500 - 1,850 yuan per ton, in line with the trend of coking coal futures [55]. 2.2 Coke Supply - Demand Analysis 2.2.1 Coke Supply: The Industry Is Still in an Excess - Capacity State, with Parallel Capacity Optimization and Output Adjustment - From January to November 2025, the cumulative domestic coke production was 460.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. In November, the coke production was 41.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. It is expected that the annual coke production will be about 500 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.8%, and the industry supply is still in a loose state [59]. - Currently, there are about 500 coking enterprises in China, with a total production capacity of about 630 million tons. The production capacity is mainly concentrated in Shanxi, Hebei, Inner Mongolia and other provinces. During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the coking industry basically completed the elimination of backward production capacity of 4.3 - meter coke ovens. In 2026, the total coke production capacity may remain stable or slightly increase, but the capacity structure will continue to be optimized. The coke output is expected to decline slightly following the demand, and the industry will generally operate with low profits [59][60]. 2.2.2 Coke Demand: Diminishing Drivers, Structural Optimization - In 2025, the weekly average of molten iron production was 2.37 million tons, significantly higher than that of 2024 (2.297 million tons) and second only to 2023 (2.389 million tons). The profitability rate of steel enterprises improved significantly in 2025, mainly due to the alleviation of cost - side pressure from raw materials (especially coking coal) and the good performance on the demand side (especially the export side) of steel products [64]. - For the coke demand outlook in 2026, in the optimistic scenario, if macro - policy stimulus is effective, traditional demand in real estate and infrastructure stabilizes, and the steel - using demand in the manufacturing industry remains resilient, and the "price - for - volume" model of steel exports is sustainable, the blast - furnace operating rate of steel mills may remain in the current high - level range, and coke demand may see a moderate increase. In the conservative scenario, considering the clear orientation of "quantity reduction and stock optimization" in the steel industry during the "15th Five - Year Plan" and the long - term adjustment pressure in the real estate market, the total steel demand is likely to continue to decline slightly, and coke consumption is expected to decline in tandem with molten iron production, with the annual demand showing a pattern of "high at the beginning and low at the end, and overall contraction". Currently, the probability of the conservative scenario is relatively higher, and the demand side is difficult to provide strong upward drivers [65][67]. 2.3 Coke Inventory and Profit 2.3.1 Coke Inventory: Higher Than the Same Period, with the Overall Pattern Continuing and Local Fluctuations Amplified - Similar to the coking coal inventory in 2025, the coke inventory showed the characteristics of "higher than the same period, with the overall pattern continuing and local fluctuations amplified". The annual fluctuation trends of total inventory, port inventory, steel - mill inventory, and independent coking - enterprise inventory were similar to previous years, still following the basic rhythm of seasonal inventory replenishment and reduction, indicating the stability of the internal logic of industrial operation. The main difference was that the fluctuation range of inventory at each link was more intense than in previous years, reflecting faster changes in market sentiment and supply - demand expectations [71]. - In 2026, the inventory trend is expected to continue the seasonal fluctuation pattern. If the terminal demand and industry policies are relatively stable, the inventory will be adjusted around the previous - year central level. However, if there are significant changes in demand expectations or supply policies, the inventory may experience wide - range fluctuations similar to those in 2025. Special attention should be paid to the leading indication of inventory changes in ports and independent coking enterprises on market sentiment [72]. 2.3.2 Coking Profits: Low at the Beginning and High at the End, Under Overall Pressure - In 2025, the coking profit rate fluctuated around ±5%, showing the characteristics of "low at the beginning and high at the end, under overall pressure". At the beginning of the year, the profit per ton of coke and the profit rate were at the lowest levels compared to the same period in the past five years and fluctuated around the break - even point for a long time. The profit improved only in the second half of the year. Compared with previous years, the profit curve in 2025 was somewhat similar to that from 2023 - 2024 in terms of fluctuation pattern but differed in the rhythm and elasticity of profit repair, and the overall profit space was still narrow [78]. - In 2026, in the context of the difficult - to - change profit - distribution pattern in the industrial chain, coking profits are expected to continue to fluctuate in a low - level range and are unlikely to return to the high - profit era. The specific trend will mainly depend on the strength of steel demand, the cost support of coking coal, and the influence of environmental - protection and other policies, and the possibility of a significant expansion of profits in the short term is low [79]. 2.3.3 Coking Industry Business Strategy - Inventory and profit are core indicators for judging the fundamentals of commodities and future market conditions, and they interact with each other. A nine - grid analysis framework is constructed to assist production enterprises in making production decisions in different scenarios. As of December 19, the average profit per ton of coke was 16 yuan/ton, and the inventory was at the second - highest level in the past five years, corresponding to the "high - inventory - break - even" combination. It is recommended that enterprises control the coking coal procurement rhythm, give priority to consuming existing raw - material inventories, and sell an appropriate proportion of futures contracts to lock in existing profits. This strategy is based on the overall industry level, and enterprises can adjust it according to their own situations [81][83]. Chapter 3: Outlook for the Double - Coking Market in 2026 - From the perspective of the domestic double - coking fundamentals in 2026, the market will present a game pattern between "definite contraction on the demand side" and "structural support on the supply side". The demand side is the core constraint. The steel industry is expected to see a slight decline in crude steel and molten iron production during the "15th Five - Year Plan", which means that the total demand for coke and upstream coking coal will have no growth momentum. The supply side shows differentiation. For coking coal, domestic production will be "controllable in total quantity and limited in increment", and the core variable lies in the import structure. For coke, the industry is still in an excess - capacity state, and the output will be flexibly adjusted according to demand and profit, with overall loose supply. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation of coking coal is slightly stronger than that of coke [86][87]. - In terms of valuation and the strength relationship among black commodities, double - coking, especially coking coal, is at a low - valuation level, but the upward driving force is restricted by the redistribution of industrial - chain profits. The coking coal/iron - ore price ratio is a key indicator for measuring the profit distribution of the industrial chain. In 2026, in the context of weakening steel demand, the overall profit of the black industrial chain is difficult to expand, and the internal profit game will be the norm. The weak position of double - coking relative to iron ore is difficult to fundamentally reverse, but its absolute price has limited downward space due to low valuation and cost support, and the trend will be mainly resistance - based decline or interval fluctuations [88]. -