燃料油年报

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, for high - sulfur fuel oil, focus on the reshaping of global supply logistics after the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions. The total external supply of high - sulfur fuel oil will increase, but the supply to Asia will be gradually diverted. In the second quarter, there may be a short - term gap in Asian high - sulfur fuel oil after diversion, which, combined with the Middle East's peak - season power generation stockpiling, may strongly support the Asian high - sulfur price in the short term [4][67]. - In 2026, for low - sulfur fuel oil, pay attention to the changes in facilities in various regions. The interference from the Sudanese civil war on South Sudan's supply is expected to weaken. Al - Zour refinery's operations will return to stability, and its exports will increase. Dangote refinery's gasoline unit will return in January 2026, and Nigeria's monthly low - sulfur exports are expected to be between 20 and 30 million tons. The Chinese market's monthly output will remain around 1 million tons. The low - sulfur fuel oil demand for shipping is stable without specific drivers, and the power - generation economy is poor [67]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Preface and Market Overview 3.1.1. Market Review in 2025 - High - sulfur fuel oil showed a strong - in - the - first - half and weak - in - the - second - half trend. In the first quarter, the supply from major regions such as Russia, Iran, and Mexico was short. In the second quarter, supply increased, and the summer power - generation demand started. In the second half of the year, high inventory suppressed prices [4][9]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil was affected by the changes in energy facilities in several supply regions, and the market price fluctuated weakly with lower volatility than in previous years [4][12]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook for 2026 - High - sulfur fuel oil: Pay attention to the reshaping of supply logistics. The total supply will increase, but the supply to Asia will be diverted. The second quarter may see a short - term price increase in Asia [4][67]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Focus on facility changes in various regions [4][67]. 3.1.3. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Before February 2026, there is an oversupply pressure for low - sulfur fuel oil. Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. For high - sulfur fuel oil, focus on the Russia - Ukraine situation [5][68]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the FU5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [5][68]. - Options: None [5][68]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - Russia: In 2025, supply was affected by sanctions and bombings. In 2026, if the situation eases, the total supply will increase, but the supply to Asia will be diverted [17][20]. - Mexico: In 2025, high - sulfur supply was affected by the unstable operation of Olmeca refinery and the new coking unit of Tula refinery. In 2026, high - sulfur exports are expected to fall below 500,000 tons per month [26][28]. - Middle East: In 2025, supply was affected by sanctions and power - generation demand. In the second half of the year, supply returned to normal [30]. 3.2.2. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Demand - Ship fuel: The demand was stable, supported by the growth of the number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers. In 2026, if shipping resumes, the total ship - fuel demand may decrease, but the high - sulfur consumption structure may remain stable [33][36]. - Feedstock in China: In 2025, it was affected by policies and sanctions. In 2026, it is expected to remain at around 1 million tons per month [40][41]. - Power generation: In 2025, the demand in Egypt and the Middle East increased in the first half of the year but declined later. In the long term, the demand in Saudi Arabia is expected to decline [44][47]. 3.2.3. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - South Sudan: In 2025, exports were frequently disrupted by the civil war. In 2026, exports are expected to be stable at 3 - 4 batches per month, flowing to the Pan - Singapore region [50][52]. - Kuwait: In 2025, supply was affected by Al - Zour refinery's production changes and UAE's diversion. In 2026, total exports and exports to the Pan - Singapore region are expected to increase [54][55]. - Nigeria: In 2025, supply was affected by Dangote refinery's RFCC unit outages. In 2026, monthly exports are expected to be 20 - 30 million tons, flowing to the Pan - Singapore region [55][56].