马士基1月第三周报价环比上涨，2月合约估值中枢不断上移-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: The 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate, and the February contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. Arbitrage: None available [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Maersk in the third week of January increased month - on - month, and the inflection point of freight rates still needs to be awaited. The cargo volume in December and January was at a relatively high level within the year. The valuation center of the 02 contract is constantly rising. The far - month contracts are facing the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations are suppressed [1][4][5] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Futures Price - As of December 30, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 58,662.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 33,696.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1795.10, 1160.20, 1370.00, 1500.10, 1056.00, and 1308.00 respectively [6] II. Spot Price - On December 26, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1690/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was $2188/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was $3033/FEU. On December 29, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1742.64 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1301.41 points [6] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In January, the average weekly capacity was 306,200 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK2/3/4/5 were 314,900/278,900/333,100/298,000 TEU respectively. In February, the average weekly capacity was 274,500 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK6/7/8/9 were 316,800/319,200/217,800/244,400 TEU respectively. In January, there were 3 blank sailings (2 by the OA Alliance and 1 by the PA Alliance) and 1 TBN (1 by the OA Alliance). In February, there were 7 TBNs (4 by the OA Alliance, 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 4 blank sailings (1 by the OA Alliance, 2 by the PA Alliance, and 1 by the Gemini Alliance). As of December 28, 2025, 260 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.103 million TEU [3][6] IV. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan for Gaza is advancing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming navigation in 2026 is relatively high. Currently, Hapag - Lloyd said that if the Suez Canal resumes navigation, it is likely to happen after the Spring Festival in 2026. The resumption of the Suez Canal means an increase in effective capacity supply and the risk of further depressing freight rates [5] V. Demand and European Economy - The report does not provide specific content on this part, but the cargo volume in December and January was at a relatively high level within the year, and the signing process of long - term contracts by the OA Alliance and PA Alliance has accelerated [4]