铜价回落后再度企稳，明年一季度展望仍偏乐观

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Suspended [8] - Options: Sell put options [8] Core Viewpoints - Currently, driven by funds, the prices of metals like silver and copper have deviated significantly from fundamentals. Due to short - term supply bottlenecks, prices are supported, but there's a risk of price decline due to reduced year - end positions [8]. - High copper prices have suppressed downstream consumption, and the industry is expected to remain weak in the short term [6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 30, 2025, the opening price of the main SHFE copper contract was 97,020 yuan/ton, closing at 98,090 yuan/ton, a 0.78% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The overnight session opened at 99,140 yuan/ton and closed at 99,220 yuan/ton, a 0.09% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 330 yuan/ton to a premium of 150 yuan/ton against the main contract, with an average premium of 240 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 97,190 to 98,050 yuan/ton. The market was quiet, and it's expected to remain so on the last trading day of the year, with a possible slight narrowing of the spot discount [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: The Fed's December meeting minutes showed agreement on a rate cut, but there was in - depth debate on economic risks. The committee will start buying short - term Treasury bills to maintain sufficient reserve supply and remove the total limit on standing repo operations [3] - Mine End: The Indian Supreme Court suspended a previous ruling on redefining the Aravalli Mountains, which aims to clarify protection and mining restrictions. The court will review the case on January 21, 2026, and the suspension of new mining leases remains in effect [4] - Smelting and Import: Starting from January 1, 2026, the provisional import tariffs for various copper products will be 0, unchanged from 2025 [5] - Consumption: The operating rates of refined copper rod and copper cable enterprises decreased. Under the influence of high copper prices, downstream procurement was weak, and inventories showed different trends. Next week, the operating rates of both industries are expected to decline slightly [6] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,450 tons to 149,475 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,860 tons to 71,738 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 214,800 tons on December 30, a change of 21,200 tons from the previous week [7] Strategy - For copper, downstream enterprises are advised to conduct on - demand hedging at current prices and increase buying hedging when prices fall to 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [8] - Arbitrage operations are suspended [8] - For options, sell put options [8]