有色金属日度策略-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. As the New Year's Day holiday approaches, the sentiment of profit - taking among funds has increased, and there are stage conversions and rotations in the strength of different metals within the sector. Attention should be paid to risk control and it is advisable to hold light positions during the holiday [12]. - The Chinese government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, expanding fiscal expenditure and supporting the replacement of consumer goods. China's industrial production and profit margins declined in November, and the central bank emphasized preventing the "overshoot" of the RMB exchange rate. The Bank of Japan hinted at more interest rate hikes, and there is uncertainty about the next Fed chair [12]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and investment strategies. For example, copper is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term; zinc is likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation; aluminum and its related products are recommended for light - position operations during the holiday; tin is suggested to reduce positions and wait and see; lead is relatively strong but requires attention to market changes; nickel and stainless steel are affected by Indonesian policies and show a stage - based upward trend [13][14][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Suggestions - Macro Logic: The non - ferrous metals sector is volatile. As the holiday approaches, profit - taking sentiment rises. There are policy changes in China, Japan, and the United States that affect the market. Attention should be paid to holiday closures, PMI data, and Fed policy [12]. - Non - Ferrous Metals Strategy: - Copper: In the short - term, copper prices fluctuate due to the holiday and profit - taking, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Macro factors and fundamental factors are favorable. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the upper pressure range at 105,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton and the lower support range at 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [13]. - Zinc: Zinc is expected to oscillate strongly. The domestic zinc ingot supply is tightening, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the upper pressure at 23,500 - 23,800 and the lower support at 22,800 - 23,000 [14]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum and its related products are recommended for light - position operations during the holiday. Aluminum oscillates and consolidates, alumina oscillates and bottoms out, and cast aluminum alloy oscillates strongly [14]. - Tin: Tin is in a state of oscillating strongly. Although the production area's operating rate is high, the demand is limited. It is recommended to hold light positions and wait and see during the holiday, with the upper pressure at 350,000 - 355,000 and the lower support at 310,000 - 320,000 [14]. - Lead: Lead oscillates strongly. The supply is tightening, and the demand is relatively weak. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies, with the upper pressure at 17,500 - 17,700 and the lower support at 16,700 - 16,800 [15]. - Nickel: Nickel is in a stage - based upward trend. The Indonesian policy affects the market, and the supply and demand situation is complex. It is recommended to go long in the short - term, with the upper pressure at 135,000 - 136,000 and the lower support at 124,000 - 125,000 [15]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel is in a stage - based adjustment. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the upper pressure at 13,000 - 13,200 and the lower support at 12,400 - 12,500 [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, such as copper closing at 98,090 with a - 0.78% change, zinc at 23,380 with a 0.54% change, etc. [16] 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The position analysis of various non - ferrous metals futures contracts is presented, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, and changes in net long and net short positions, as well as the influencing factors [18]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are given, such as the Yangtze River non - ferrous copper spot price at 97,840 yuan/ton with a - 3.42% change, and the Yangtze River non - ferrous 0 zinc at 23,290 yuan/ton with a - 0.68% change [19][21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Multiple charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends, which help to understand the supply - demand relationship and price fluctuations in the industry chain [24][27][29] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Multiple charts related to the arbitrage of each non - ferrous metal are provided, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, the basis difference between Shanghai copper and London copper, etc., which help to analyze arbitrage opportunities [54][55][58] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options - Multiple charts related to the options of each non - ferrous metal are provided, such as the historical volatility and weighted implied volatility of copper options, which help to understand the option market situation [73][75][78]