中辉能化观点-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautious bearish outlook on crude oil, natural gas [2][7] - Short - term bearish rebound expected in LPG, L, PP, PVC, asphalt, glass, soda ash [2][7] - Suggests callback buying opportunities for PTA, methanol, urea [31][37][41] - Recommends rebound short - selling for MEG [34] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices will oscillate in a range due to geopolitical uncertainties and supply surplus [2] - LPG prices will strengthen in the short - term due to cost - side support but trend downwards in the long - term [2] - PTA offers callback buying opportunities as its short - term supply - demand balance is tight [31] - MEG is expected to accumulate inventory, and investors should look for rebound short - selling opportunities [34] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined, with WTI down 0.22%, Brent down 0.26%, and SC up 0.69% [10] - Basic Logic: Geopolitical factors in South America may boost prices in the short - term, but supply surplus in the off - season exerts downward pressure [11] - Fundamentals: Supply is affected by US interception of Venezuelan oil tankers, and demand in Japan increased in November. US inventories rose in the week ending December 19 [12] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Focus on the SC range of [430 - 440] [13] LPG - Market Performance: On December 30, the PG main contract closed at 4092 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [16] - Basic Logic: Saudi's CP contract price increase boosts prices in the short - term, and supply and demand show certain resilience [17] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4000 - 4100] [18] L - Market Performance: L05 closed at 6461 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [20] - Basic Logic: It follows market sentiment in the short - term, with weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure [22] - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the L range of [6350 - 6500] [22] PP - Market Performance: PP05 closed at 6321 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [24] - Basic Logic: Cost strengthens in January, and the industry chain faces high inventory - reduction pressure [26] - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the PP range of [6250 - 6400] [26] PVC - Market Performance: V05 closed at 4810 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [28] - Basic Logic: Cost support strengthens, but high inventory restricts the rebound space [30] - Strategy Recommendation: Take partial profit on long positions, wait for inventory reduction for long - term long positions, and conduct hedging for industrial customers. Focus on the V range of [4700 - 4900] [30] PTA - Market Performance: TA05 closed at 5280 yuan/ton [31] - Basic Logic: Supply - demand is tight in the short - term, but there is a risk of negative feedback from the demand side [32] - Strategy Recommendation: Look for callback buying opportunities for TA05 in the range of [5080 - 5190] [33] MEG - Market Performance: EG05 closed at 3686 yuan/ton [34] - Basic Logic: Domestic production capacity increases, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is expected to accumulate [35] - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions and look for rebound short - selling opportunities for EG05 in the range of [3780 - 3880] [36] Methanol - Market Performance: Not specifically mentioned [39] - Basic Logic: Supply pressure exists, demand is slightly weak, and cost support is weak [39] - Strategy Recommendation: Look for callback buying opportunities for MA05 in the range of [2210 - 2250] [40] Urea - Market Performance: UR05 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [41] - Basic Logic: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but the arbitrage window between domestic and overseas markets remains open [42] - Strategy Recommendation: Look for callback buying opportunities for UR05 in the range of [1725 - 1755] [44] LNG - Market Performance: On December 29, the NG main contract closed at 4.687 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 7.35% [46] - Basic Logic: Demand support weakens, and supply is relatively abundant [47] - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the NG range of [3.727 - 4.160] [47] Asphalt - Market Performance: On December 30, the BU main contract closed at 3038 yuan/ton, up 1.00% [49] - Basic Logic: It is mainly affected by crude oil prices, and supply and demand are relatively loose [50] - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions. Focus on the BU range of [3000 - 3100] [51] Glass - Market Performance: FG05 closed at 1087 yuan/ton, up 3.4% [53] - Basic Logic: Cold - repair expectations support prices, and supply and demand are weak [55] - Strategy Recommendation: Go long in the short - term and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities in the long - term. Focus on the FG range of [1070 - 1120] [55] Soda Ash - Market Performance: SA05 closed at 1213 yuan/ton, up 2.7% [57] - Basic Logic: It rebounds following glass prices, with stable supply and weak demand [59] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the SA range of [1200 - 1240] [59]