供需双弱持续，原料风险关注

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the overcapacity situation in the asphalt industry remains unchanged, but the pace of capacity clearance accelerates, with no new capacity added. Supply will tighten month - on - month, and resources will concentrate on refineries with quotas and industrial chain integration advantages. - As the first year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the start of terminal demand for asphalt is slow, with the focus shifting to stock maintenance. There is an expected increase in demand for modified asphalt. - Inventory levels are expected to be low in the first half of the year supported by low supply, but the de - stocking speed will slow down in the second half due to weak demand, resulting in a relatively high inventory level at the end of the year. - The price trend is expected to fluctuate according to seasonal patterns [5][48]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In 2025, the asphalt market was influenced by cost, policy, and supply - demand patterns. In the first quarter, low start - up, low inventory, and the release of winter storage demand drove up spot prices. In February, weakening oil prices, slower - than - expected post - holiday demand recovery, and raw material premium fluctuations led to a decline in futures prices. In the second quarter, oil prices fluctuated widely, and asphalt futures prices followed suit. In the second half of the year, prices declined. In the third quarter, the market was "strong in the north and weak in the south", and in the fourth quarter, supply exceeded demand, leading to rising inventory and falling prices [4][12][13]. 2. Fundamental Situation Supply Overview - In 2025, China's total asphalt production is expected to be 28.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons or 10%. The growth mainly came from local refineries and PetroChina, while Sinopec continued to contract. - In 2026, it is expected that Sinopec's production will continue to decline by about 14% to around 5.4 million tons, and PetroChina's production will decline slightly by 0.6%. Local refineries with crude oil quotas will make more flexible production decisions, and the production of local refineries is expected to increase by 1.8% to 14.71 million tons [21][23][24]. Demand Overview - In 2025, asphalt market demand was weak, showing the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season and weaker in the off - season". Climate, capital status, and regional project progress are the main factors affecting demand. - In 2026, as the first year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", highway investment and downstream asphalt demand are expected to start slowly, accounting for 18% of the entire five - year plan, with an estimated total demand of 28.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [34][35][36]. Inventory and Valuation - In 2025, inventory remained low throughout the year, fluctuating due to seasonal demand, refinery production adjustments, weather disturbances, and winter storage policies. - In terms of cost, international crude oil prices showed a downward trend throughout the year, reducing refinery raw material costs. Refineries with crude oil quotas had relatively low comprehensive costs and achieved profitability in some periods, while refineries without quotas suffered deep losses and gradually stopped production [40][41][42]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations Future Outlook - Supply: The long - term overcapacity situation remains unchanged, but the exit of backward production capacity accelerates. In 2026, there will be no new capacity, and supply will likely remain in a tight - balance pattern. - Demand: The overall demand in the "14th Five - Year Plan" is expected to be the same as that in the "13th Five - Year Plan". In 2026, demand starts slowly, and there is an expected increase in demand for modified asphalt. - Price: The price trend is expected to fluctuate seasonally, with potential pressure in the first half of the year and a possible rebound in the second half [48]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: The BU main contract will fluctuate widely throughout the year, with an operating range of 2700 - 3300. - Arbitrage: In the first half of the year, trade raw material risks and overweight asphalt in oil products. In the second half of the year, if demand is less than expected, short the asphalt - crude oil spread. - Options: Wait and see [6][48][49]