石油沥青日报：情绪边际改善，华南现货小幅反弹-20251231

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the unilateral strategy, suggesting to wait for a clear bottom signal and consider a left - side long position on dips [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On December 30th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2602 in the afternoon session was 3,038 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton or 1.47% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 118,184 lots, down 23,149 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 243,652 lots, up 6,073 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton, Shandong 2,870 - 3,190 yuan/ton, East China 3,000 - 3,120 yuan/ton, and South China 2,900 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The asphalt spot prices in North China and South China increased, while those in other regions remained stable [1][2] - Although the overall rigid demand for asphalt is poor, the supply side is supported by tight local asphalt spot circulation. The pricing of the futures market has shifted to the southern region. With the reduction of supply from some refineries, market sentiment has improved compared to last week, showing a rebound expectation. However, the potential risk of supply interruption of Venezuelan crude oil is an upward risk. The market is intertwined with long and short factors, and a bottom - up rebound needs a clearer signal [1] Group 3: Chart Information Summary - The report includes charts on the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in various regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), the closing prices of asphalt futures indices, main contracts, and near - month contracts, the month - to - month spreads of near - month contracts, the trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, the weekly asphalt production in China and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), and the consumption and inventory of asphalt [3]