在岸人民币突破7.0关口，做好假期风险管理

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by policy expectations, economic data, and geopolitical factors. There are opportunities in commodities and stock index futures, but also risks from geopolitical events, economic downturns, and Fed policies. It is recommended to go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations have shifted. The Politburo and Central Economic Work Conference emphasized policies. Multiple ministries responded, with the central bank considering monetary tools, the NDRC focusing on consumption and anti - "involution", and the Ministry of Finance on investment. The 2026 national subsidy plan was released, and China's November foreign trade rebounded while the economy was still under pressure. The on - shore RMB rose above 7, and the A - share market had mixed performance [2] - The Fed's December meeting announced short - term bond purchases and a 25 - basis - point rate cut, with expectations of future rate cuts. The US economic data was mixed, and Trump considered suing Powell and may announce the next Fed chair in January [3] Commodity Analysis - Focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty, and also pay attention to the potential for low - valued commodities to make up for losses. The non - ferrous supply shortage persists, and the energy sector faces production cuts and geopolitical risks. In the chemical sector, "anti - involution" opportunities exist, and in agriculture, pay attention to Sino - US trade and weather. For precious metals, consider buying on dips [4] Strategy - Go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [5] Important News - Policies include equipment updates, consumer goods trade - ins, and housing sales tax regulations. Commodity futures had significant price movements, and there were multiple geopolitical events such as Trump's actions and Russia - Ukraine tensions [7]