光大期货金融期货日报-20251231

Research Views - The stock index is expected to continue oscillating within the range established since October. The third - quarter cumulative year - on - year revenue growth rate of CSI 1000 is about 2.6%, which supports its current valuation and reduces the risk of liquidity. The Spring Rally may be less intense this year due to the lack of necessary conditions [1]. - The bond market is expected to remain strong in the short term. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 but will be cautious about interest rate cuts. The bond market's oscillating pattern is difficult to change [1][2]. Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Variety | 2025 - 12 - 30 | 2025 - 12 - 29 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 3,035.4 | 3,038.0 | - 2.6 | - 0.09% | | IF | 4,622.2 | 4,610.2 | 12.0 | 0.26% | | IC | 7,381.0 | 7,336.6 | 44.4 | 0.61% | | IM | 7,459.2 | 7,439.0 | 20.2 | 0.27% | Stock Indexes | Variety | 2025 - 12 - 30 | 2025 - 12 - 29 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3,036.6 | 3,034.6 | 1.9 | 0.06% | | CSI 300 | 4,651.3 | 4,639.4 | 11.9 | 0.26% | | CSI 500 | 7,458.9 | 7,430.6 | 28.3 | 0.38% | | CSI 1000 | 7,597.3 | 7,594.2 | 3.1 | 0.04% | Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | 2025 - 12 - 30 | 2025 - 12 - 29 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.49 | 102.48 | 0.01 | 0.01% | | TF | 105.82 | 105.84 | - 0.025 | - 0.02% | | T | 107.94 | 107.98 | - 0.035 | - 0.03% | | TL | 111.83 | 111.82 | 0.01 | 0.01% | [3] Market News - The Shanghai Composite Index oscillated within a narrow range throughout the day, while the ChiNext Index showed relatively stronger performance. There were 1,734 rising stocks, 65 daily limit - up stocks, and 3,306 falling stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.49%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.63% [1][4]. - The liquid - cooled server concept stocks, AI intelligent agent concept stocks, and robot concept stocks performed actively. The commercial aerospace concept stocks first rose and then fell. PEEK materials, consumer electronics, and digital currency sectors led the gains, while Hainan, retail, photovoltaic wind power, and shipping port sectors led the losses [4]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC contracts, including their closing prices over time and the relationship between futures and spot prices [6][7][8][9][10]. Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis of different - tenor treasury bond futures, inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][15][16][17][19]. Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rate of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar against the RMB, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate [23][25][27][29][31].