商业航天：2026年，从大国叙事到商业闭环的奇点时刻

Core Insights - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for investors, focusing on state-owned system integrators with core frequency resources for stable beta returns, while also investing in private sector leaders in commercial rockets and satellite components for high alpha returns [3] - The Chinese commercial space industry is transitioning from a policy incubation phase to an industrial explosion phase, with 2026 expected to be a pivotal year for alpha returns as the industry shifts from prototype development to mass production [5] Policy Cycle - Recent policies have provided a long-term development framework for the commercial space industry, with significant catalysts emerging [12] - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasized the importance of commercial space, while the 15th Five-Year Plan positions it alongside new energy vehicles and integrated circuits as a pillar industry [14] - The establishment of dedicated regulatory bodies and action plans aims to enhance efficiency in launch approvals and promote industry standardization [14] Technology, Application, and Capital Resonance - Key technological breakthroughs are expected to lower costs significantly, with reusable rockets like the Zhuque-3 projected to reduce launch costs [30] - The shift from national missions to consumer applications is anticipated, with satellite communication becoming a standard feature in smartphones and vehicles [36] - A surge in capital investment is expected, with the establishment of a national commercial space development fund to support long-term investments [41] Competitive Cycle - SpaceX has established a monopoly-level launch capability, necessitating China to develop its own low-orbit broadband communication network for both commercial and national security reasons [20] External Catalysts - The rapid iteration of SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Starship has created competitive pressure, prompting domestic policies and capital to favor core companies in the space sector [5] Investment Strategy and Valuation Framework - The valuation framework for commercial space is shifting from a broad narrative of total addressable market (TAM) to specific analyses of price-to-sales (PS) ratios and order visibility [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies deeply integrated into the commercial rocket and satellite supply chains, which are expected to benefit first from the transition to mass production [3] Future Catalysts - The report highlights 2026-2027 as critical years for the commercial space industry, with significant developments expected in satellite deployment and launch capabilities [6]