国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - Positive (Trend Intensity: 1): Paper pulp, Methanol [31][42] - Negative (Trend Intensity: -1): Synthetic rubber, Caustic soda [17][27] - Neutral (Trend Intensity: 0): Para - xylene, PTA, MEG, Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Glass, Urea, Styrene, Soda ash, LPG, Propylene, PVC, Fuel oil, Low - sulfur fuel oil, Container Freight Index (European Line), Staple fiber, Bottle chips, Offset printing paper, Pure benzene [2][12][18] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall: The report provides daily market analyses and outlooks for various energy and chemical commodities, including price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and key influencing factors [2][9][10] - Specific Commodities: - PX and PTA: Expected to be in a high - level consolidation market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is rising with marginal decline in polyester demand [9][10] - MEG: Port inventory is accumulating again, with a weak trend. However, there is a marginal improvement in the inventory build - up expectation [11] - Rubber: In a wide - range consolidation state, affected by tire enterprise production plans [12] - Synthetic rubber: Prices are falling from a high level, with weakening fundamentals and following the decline of the commodity index [15][17] - LLDPE: Upstream inventory is being transferred, with stable basis. There is medium - term supply - demand pressure [18] - PP: The market is expected to consolidate steadily in January due to multiple PDH unit maintenance plans, but the overall fundamentals are weak [21][22] - Caustic soda: High - production and high - inventory situation persists, with attention on January delivery pressure [26] - Paper pulp: The market is expected to be consolidating with an upward bias, and attention should be paid to market capital trends and inventory changes [31][32] - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable, and market trading has improved locally [35] - Methanol: Short - term strength is expected, but there is a risk of negative feedback from MTO [41][42] - Urea: The oscillation center is moving up, supported by the expected peak agricultural demand season in 2026, but price elasticity is limited [43][46] - Styrene: Short - term oscillation is expected. The processing fee is expected to remain at a medium - high level, but there is a risk of negative feedback from downstream [47][49] - Soda ash: The spot market has little change, with weak and stable oscillations [52] - LPG: The January CP is released at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [54] - Propylene: Spot supply and demand are tightening, with an expectation of a rebound from the decline [54] - PVC: The market is in a weak - level consolidation, with limited rebound space due to high - production and high - inventory structure [62] - Fuel oil: The market is in a narrow - range adjustment, and short - term strength may be maintained [65] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [65] - Container Freight Index (European Line): The market is in a high - level consolidation, with different investment strategies for different contracts [67][77] - Staple fiber and Bottle chips: Both are in a high - level consolidation state [81] - Offset printing paper: It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach, with stable market prices [84] - Pure benzene: The market is expected to be in short - term oscillation. The price is expected to show a pattern of wide - range oscillation with a low - front and high - back center in 2026 [48][89] 3. Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: The price is in a high - level consolidation. Supply is increasing as some domestic and overseas plants are restarting or maintaining high - load operation. Demand is decreasing as PTA plant operating rates decline. Polyester has high operating rates but more maintenance is expected in 1 - 2 months [9] - PTA: In a high - level consolidation. Supply is rising as some plants are restarting. Polyester demand is marginally declining but still at a relatively high level. PTA is in a de - stocking state, which is beneficial for the spread and basis [10] - MEG: Port inventory is accumulating. Supply operating rates are stable, and demand is decreasing as polyester operating rates decline. There is a marginal improvement in the inventory build - up expectation due to potential load - reduction of some domestic and overseas plants [11] Rubber - The market is in a wide - range consolidation. The futures price has small fluctuations, and the spot price is relatively stable. Some domestic tire enterprises plan to conduct maintenance during the "New Year's Day" holiday to relieve inventory pressure [12][14] Synthetic Rubber - The price is falling from a high level. The futures price has declined, and the trading volume and open interest have decreased. The fundamentals have weakened marginally in the past two weeks, and it is expected to be in a weak - level consolidation [15][17] LLDPE - Upstream inventory is being transferred to the middle - stream, and the basis is stable. The raw material price has rebounded, and the profit of the PE process has been compressed. There is medium - term supply - demand pressure due to high production capacity and weakening demand [18][19] PP - The market is expected to consolidate steadily in January due to multiple PDH unit maintenance plans. The cost side is under pressure, and the demand is weak. The overall fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in PDH units [21][22] Caustic Soda - It remains in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The demand is weak due to the over - supply of alumina and seasonal decline in non - aluminum downstream demand. The supply pressure is large as winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. Attention should be paid to the January delivery pressure [26] Paper Pulp - The market is expected to be consolidating with an upward bias. The futures price has shown an upward trend, and the spot price is relatively stable. The downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement, and attention should be paid to capital trends, inventory digestion of high - priced broad - leaf pulp, and port inventory de - stocking [31][33] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable, and market trading has improved locally. The futures price has risen, and the basis has weakened. Some regions have seen price increases due to capacity reduction [35] Methanol - Short - term strength is expected. The futures price has rebounded, and the spot price has also increased. The market is trading on the strong expectation for the first quarter of 2026, but there is a risk of negative feedback from MTO if the price continues to rise [41][42] Urea - The oscillation center is moving up. The futures price has increased slightly, and the spot price is relatively stable. The market has strong expectations for the peak agricultural demand season in 2026, but price elasticity is limited due to policy suppression [43][46] Styrene - Short - term oscillation is expected. The futures price has declined slightly. The supply is relatively tight, and the processing fee is expected to remain at a medium - high level. However, there is a risk of negative feedback from downstream if the demand in the traditional peak season in the first half of 2026 is not as expected [47][50] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change, with weak and stable oscillations. The futures price has increased slightly, and the basis has weakened. The enterprise production is slightly adjusted, and the downstream demand is general [52] LPG and Propylene - LPG: The January CP is released at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase. The futures price has risen, and the trading volume and open interest have changed. Attention should be paid to the impact of PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [54][59] - Propylene: Spot supply and demand are tightening, with an expectation of a rebound from the decline. The futures price has shown certain fluctuations, and the basis has changed [54] PVC - The market is in a weak - level consolidation. The spot price has continued to rise, but the supply - demand improvement is limited. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the large - scale reduction expectation may occur after the 03 contract [62][63] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The market is in a narrow - range adjustment, and short - term strength may be maintained. The futures price has shown small fluctuations, and the spot price has increased slightly [65] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable. The futures price has declined slightly [65] Container Freight Index (European Line) - The market is in a high - level consolidation. For the 2602 contract, the key issues are the freight rate height, inflection point time, and decline rate. For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively high probability of success. For the 2610 contract, attention should be paid to the progress of the second - stage peace talks in Gaza, and short - selling on rallies in the medium - long term [67][77][79] Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips - Staple Fiber: The market is in a high - level consolidation. The futures price is oscillating strongly, and the spot price is stable. The sales are generally average, and the downstream purchases are on a demand - basis [81] - Bottle Chips: The market is in a high - level consolidation. The upstream raw material price is oscillating and rising, and the factory price is mostly stable. The market trading atmosphere has rebounded slightly [81][82] Offset Printing Paper - It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach. The spot price is stable, and the market trading is general. The price in the Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, and the dealer and downstream attitudes are cautious [84][85][87] Pure Benzene - The market is expected to be in short - term oscillation. The futures price has increased slightly. The port inventory has increased, and the market trading atmosphere is general. In 2026, the price is expected to show a pattern of wide - range oscillation with a low - front and high - back center [48][89][90]