液化石油气日报：沙特1月CP价格上调，提振市场情绪-20251231

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing [2] Core View - The increase in Saudi Arabia's January CP price boosts market sentiment. However, on the domestic fundamental front, the improvement in terminal combustion demand is limited, rising import costs will further suppress downstream chemical profit and raw material demand, and the recent increase in registered warehouse receipts means there are still resistances above the PG futures market [1] Market Analysis - On December 30, regional prices were: 4200 - 4340 in the Shandong market, 4100 - 4300 in the Northeast market, 4070 - 4300 in the North China market, 4200 - 4400 in the East China market, 4520 - 4710 in the Yangtze River market, 4100 - 4250 in the Northwest market, and 4470 - 4530 in the South China market [1] - In the second half of January 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 596 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton, and butane was 586 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4615 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton, and butane was 4537 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of January 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China was 589 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton, and butane was 579 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4560 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton, and butane was 4483 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton [1] - Saudi Aramco's January CP: Propane was 525 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from December; butane was 520 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton from December [1] - Due to the tightening of the international market, Saudi Arabia's January CP price is higher than expected. Coupled with the recent significant increase in the cost of CIF with discounts, the import arbitrage window is closed, which supports the domestic market pricing [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Figures - Figures include those showing the spot prices of civil liquefied gas in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and the Yangtze River regions, the spot prices of ether - post carbon four in Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, the Yangtze River, and Northwest regions, as well as the closing prices of PG futures' main contract, index, and near - month contract, the near - month spread, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract and total contracts [3]