铁矿石：供需进入去化阶段，价格高位震荡为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided documents 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - narrative is positive, the industrial chain fundamentals have improved. Iron ore supply is entering the off - season and there is a restocking demand. The supply - demand of iron ore will enter a phased destocking stage. The restocking demand will support the price, but the upside is limited by the industrial chain profit. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures will run in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the outer - market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is range operation and covered call options [1][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Logic - Domestically, monetary and fiscal policies are in an active reserve period. The start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle boosts commodities, and the short - term domestic macro - narrative is positive. The industrial chain is in a weak - balance stage with prices fluctuating narrowly. There is a "seesaw" effect between precious metals, non - ferrous metals and the black - metal sector. Recently, black - metal prices have recovered due to reduced inventory pressure at the finished - product end, increased industrial chain valuation, strong support from the iron ore spot price for the futures market, and the steel mills' entry into the restocking cycle [1] Supply - Mainstream mines are making a year - end phased shipping rush. The weekly shipping volume has increased month - on - month. After the rush, foreign ore shipping will enter the seasonal off - season, and domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. Overall, supply support is getting stronger [2] Demand - Domestic demand has stabilized and slightly increased. The profitability of steel mills has improved after the decline in carbon - element prices. There are both blast - furnace overhauls and restarts. Some blast furnaces in Hebei and Shanxi will restart at the end of the month. Domestic steel - mill demand is expected to rise in the short term, and the pre - holiday restocking cycle is about to start, with restocking demand expected to be continuously released [3] Inventory - The imported inventory at steel mills has increased month - on - month but is still at the lowest level in recent years. Later, attention should be paid to when the full - scale restocking of US - dollar cargoes at steel mills will start. Port inventory has been continuously accumulating because the arrival volume has remained relatively high, and it is expected to continue to accumulate in December [3] Price - The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures will operate in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the outer - market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [3] Strategy - Range operation and covered call options [3]