下游接货情绪一般，氯碱震荡整理

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is in a state of weak supply - demand, with the impact of macro - sentiment weakening. The overall supply is abundant, downstream开工 is slightly decreasing, and the overall profit is at a relatively low level year - on - year. Attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro - policy dynamics [3]. - The caustic soda spot price is stable with a downward trend. The supply side is at a high level of operation, and the non - aluminum demand is weakening. Attention should be paid to the change of liquid chlorine price, device maintenance dynamics, and the implementation of specific anti - involution rules on the macro side [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4810 yuan/ton (+33), the East China basis is - 320 yuan/ton (- 43), and the South China basis is - 270 yuan/ton (- 43) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4490 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4540 yuan/ton (- 10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 760 yuan/ton (+226), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 336 yuan/ton (+134), and the PVC export profit is - 16.1 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - plant PVC inventory is 30.6 tons (- 2.2), the social PVC inventory is 51.4 tons (+0.3), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 77.46% (+0.45%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 70.73% (- 3.33%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 75.42% (- 0.70%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 80.7 tons (+4.5) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2273 yuan/ton (+41), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 76 yuan/ton (- 57) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 703 yuan/ton (- 5), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1120 yuan/ton (- 20) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1172 yuan/ton (- 20), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 564.7 yuan/ton (- 22.9), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 237.33 yuan/ton (- 22.87), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 555.00 yuan/ton (+101.01) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 44.22 tons (- 2.25), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.97 tons (- 0.54), and the caustic soda operation rate is 86.00% (+1.50%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate of caustic soda: The alumina operation rate is 85.14% (+0.14%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 61.28% (- 0.78%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 85.05% (- 1.98%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: There are no planned maintenance enterprises this week, and some previously - maintained enterprises have resumed production, with a slight increase in supply. All new PVC devices in 2025 have been put into production, and the supply is still abundant [3]. - Demand: The overall downstream operation rate has slightly decreased. Downstream enterprises purchase on dips, and the trading volume is light when the price rebounds. The export orders remain resilient before the two festivals [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level compared to the same period [3]. - Profit: The comprehensive chlor - alkali production profit at the upstream PVC end has been somewhat repaired due to the slight rebound of the caustic soda and PVC spot prices, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price has decreased, and the production profit is in a loss state; the semi - coke price has slightly decreased, and the profit is still in a loss state [3]. - Futures: The number of warehouse receipts is at a high level in the same period, and the hedging pressure on the futures price remains, continuously suppressing the PVC futures price [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: As the devices resume production, the operation rate has slightly increased, and the overall operation is at a high level. The price of liquid chlorine is still positive and does not drag down the chlor - alkali profit. The price of liquid chlorine is difficult to fall, resulting in the high - level operation of caustic soda. The downstream of Shandong liquid chlorine will reduce the load at the end of December, and the liquid chlorine price is expected to further decline, and the cost support may strengthen [3]. - Demand: The operation rate of alumina plants is relatively stable, and the purchase price is stable. Some alumina plants expect the purchase price of caustic soda to decrease next month. The operation rates of non - aluminum industries such as textile printing and dyeing, viscose staple fiber, and pulp have decreased, and the non - aluminum demand has weakened [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None Caustic Soda - Single - side: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [4][5]