新能源及有色金属日报：品种轮动效应，镍不锈钢预计将维持反弹-20251231

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel is expected to remain strong due to frequent positive policies from Indonesia, a long period of bottom - side oscillation, and attention from profit - seeking funds in the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors, despite a fundamental situation of high inventory and oversupply [2]. - Stainless steel prices are predicted to maintain an oscillating state, closely following the price trend of Shanghai nickel, with macro - level benefits being partially realized, continuous inventory reduction for four weeks, and weak downstream demand in the off - season [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On December 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2602 opened at 132,390 yuan/ton, up 3.86% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,000,602 (+215,362) lots, and the open interest was 149,624 (+1,821) lots. It showed a wide - range oscillating trend of opening low and moving high, accelerating the upward rush in the afternoon, and slightly falling back at the end. The intraday amplitude reached 7.0%, hitting a nine - month high. The price rebounded strongly under the continuous fermentation of the expectation of Indonesia's nickel ore quota cut, but there was significant divergence between bulls and bears due to policy uncertainty [1]. - Nickel Ore: Near the holiday, the nickel ore market was calm, and prices remained stable. Affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, resources were limited, and mines had a bullish expectation. Shipping efficiency was affected by increased rainfall. The downstream nickel - iron market improved, and the bargaining price moved up. Iron plants were eager to stock up in advance, which might slow down the price - pressing mentality for raw material nickel ore purchases. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price for January 2026 (Phase I) is expected to rise by 0.05 - 0.08 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1]. - Spot: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 135,400 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 7,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 37,798 (-712) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,186 (0) tons [1]. Strategy - The strategy is mainly based on range trading for single - side operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On December 30, 2025, the main stainless steel contract 2602 opened at 12,925 yuan/ton and closed at 13,090 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 181,552 (+11,677) lots, and the open interest was 88,597 (-4,171) lots. It showed an oscillating and relatively strong trend of opening low and moving high, with a relatively mild intraday fluctuation and an amplitude of about 2.1%, significantly smaller than that of Shanghai nickel. It rose driven by the strong rebound of Shanghai nickel, but its own weak fundamentals limited the increase, showing a pattern of "passive following + range oscillation" [2]. - Spot: Driven by the futures market, the spot market trading enthusiasm increased, but the acceptance of high - price goods was average. After traders offered discounts, the transaction situation was relatively good. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 60 - 310 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 912.5 yuan/nickel point [2][3]. Strategy - The single - side strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3].