新能源及有色金属日报：现货偏少，升水偏强-20251231

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. - The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm persists. The supply is expected to increase, and the TC is expected to continue rising. - Supply pressure is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure. Zinc prices may be relatively weak even when other non - ferrous metals are strong, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is -$30.00 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 23,300 yuan/ton, with a premium of 120 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 180 yuan/ton to 23,200 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 5 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price fell by 150 yuan/ton to 23,190 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On December 30, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,180 yuan/ton, closed at 23,380 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 148,502 lots, and the open interest was 93,470 lots. The highest price was 23,435 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,130 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of December 30, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 111,900 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 106,325 tons, a decrease of 225 tons from the previous trading day [3]