黑色金属数据日报-20251231

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Views - The steel market continues to oscillate. With low supply and demand, there is some support at low prices. After January, market funds may be more abundant, and the hot-rolled coil futures-spot positive arbitrage can still be rolled [2]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, strong expectations persist, and the prices are on the stronger side. However, the fundamentals are under pressure, and there is a high risk of a subsequent decline [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the spot price cut news did not lead to a continuous decline in the futures market. The market is likely to continue wide - range oscillations [5]. - For iron ore, small - scale rumors drive short - term fluctuations. The price has limited upside and downside space, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures Prices: On December 30, the closing prices of RB2610, HC2610, 12609, J2609, JM2609 were 3177.00, 3302.00, 767.00, 1795.50, 1200.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of - 2.00, - 10.00, - 3.50, 10.50, 12.00 yuan and - 0.06%, - 0.30%, - 0.45%, 0.59%, 1.01% [1]. - Cross - month Spreads: On December 30, the cross - month spreads of RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, 12605 - 2609, J2605 - 2609, JM2605 - 2609 were - 43.00, - 20.00, 22.00, - 80.50, - 80.50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Price Differences/Ratios/Profits: On December 30, the coil - to - screw spread was 148.00 yuan/ton, the screw - to - ore ratio was 3.97, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.53, the screw surface profit was - 83.10 yuan/ton, and the coking surface profit was 226.07 yuan/ton [1]. Steel Market - Market Situation: On Tuesday, the futures prices were stable, and the spot prices fluctuated slightly. The supply - demand structure was weak in both supply and demand. The pressure of destocking plates was prominent. After January, the molten iron output may stop falling and stabilize, and there will be some restocking behavior [2]. - Investment Strategy: Unilateral trading can be based on an oscillatory approach. After January, it is beneficial for futures - spot positions to enter the market, and the hot - rolled coil futures - spot positive arbitrage can still be rolled [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market - Supply - Demand Situation: The direct demand has weakened significantly, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. The supply is still high, and the medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. The supply pressure of ferrosilicon is relatively lighter than that of silicomanganese [3]. - Cost and Policy Factors: The cost support of silicomanganese has strengthened, and relevant policies have formed constraints and cost support expectations for the supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [3]. - Investment Strategy: Participate in cross - month reverse arbitrage [6]. Coking Coal and Coke Market - Market Situation: The fourth round of spot price cuts for coke is expected to start. The futures market rebounded after the price dropped to the position of the fourth - round price cut. The market is likely to continue wide - range oscillations [5]. - Investment Strategy: Stay on the sidelines for the time being [6]. Iron Ore Market - Market Situation: Affected by rumors, the iron ore price has risen, but the upside space is limited. The port inventory will continue to rise, and the steel apparent demand has declined slightly. The iron ore price has limited upside and downside space [6]. - Investment Strategy: Stay on the sidelines [6].