贵金属数据日报-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metal prices may experience wide - range high - level oscillations. Due to the high level of SHFE silver VIA and the upcoming New Year's Day holiday in China, silver prices may still have significant fluctuations. It is recommended that investors focus on risk control and hold light positions during the holiday. Follow - up events such as the announcement of the new Fed chairperson and US critical mineral tariffs should be monitored. Given the gold - silver ratio at a ten - year low, it is advisable to prioritize buying gold on dips [4]. - In the long - term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle. Global geopolitical uncertainties will continue due to intensified great - power competition and de - globalization. The huge US debt and weakened Fed independence will increase dollar credit risk. The allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. Therefore, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price Tracking - On December 30, 2025, compared with December 29, 2025, London gold spot dropped 2.1% to $4364.17 per ounce, London silver spot fell 0.7% to $74.80 per ounce, COMEX gold decreased 2.2% to $4378.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver declined 0.8% to $74.34 per ounce. The AU2602 contract fell 2.2% to 984.84 yuan per gram, and the AG2602 contract dropped 0.4% to 18140 yuan per kilogram. The AU (T + D) decreased 2.1% to 980.75 yuan per gram, and the AG (T + D) fell 1.6% to 18110 yuan per kilogram [3]. - Regarding price differences, on December 30, 2025, compared with December 29, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference changed by - 23.4%, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference changed by - 115.4%, the gold internal - external price difference (TD - London) changed by 0.8%, and the silver internal - external price difference (TD - London) changed by 19.9%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 1.9%, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 1.4%. The AU2604 - 2602 price difference changed by - 5.7%, and the AG2604 - 2602 price difference changed by 725.0% [3]. 3.2 Position Data - As of December 29, 2025, compared with December 26, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position increased by 0.08% to 1071.99 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position decreased by 0.52% to 16305.9639 tons. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold increased by 4.63% to 280920 contracts, the non - commercial short positions increased by 5.25% to 46942 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions increased by 4.51% to 233978 contracts. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver decreased by 15.05% to 56034 contracts, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 7.37% to 19682 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions decreased by 18.69% to 36352 contracts [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On December 30, 2025, compared with December 29, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 97704 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 5.14% to 755754 kilograms. On December 29, 2025, compared with December 26, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.09% to 36223374 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.13% to 449127596 troy ounces [3]. 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Markets - On December 30, 2025, compared with December 29, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.02% to 7.03. The US dollar index decreased by 0.04% to 98.00, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.29% to 3.45%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.48% to 4.12%, the VIX increased by 4.41% to 14.20, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.35% to 6905.74, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 1.58% to 57.83 [3]. 3.5 Market Review - On December 30, the main contract of SHFE gold futures closed down 3.11% to 984.84 yuan per gram, and the main contract of SHFE silver futures closed down 3.96% to 18140 yuan per kilogram [3]. 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - After a sharp adjustment on Monday, precious metal prices stabilized and rebounded on Tuesday. London spot gold returned above the $400 per ounce mark, and London spot silver returned above the $76 per ounce mark. In terms of the silver price difference structure, the premium of silver spot and T0 prices over futures significantly narrowed, and the premium of SHFE silver over foreign markets also significantly declined. However, the de - stocking of silver at the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued, indicating that the tightness of silver spot supply has eased but not completely improved [4].