聚酯数据日报-20251231

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in the first quarter of 2026, with the PX - naphtha spread widening to $360 and the PX - mixed xylene spread rising to $244, which encourages PX producers to actively purchase MX for conversion. Demand remains robust, with high domestic PTA operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The high gasoline spread also supports aromatics. New polyester installations keep the polyester load high, maintaining high PTA consumption, increasing market willingness for domestic products, and rapidly strengthening the basis. Although polyester demand weakens seasonally in China, the production cuts by polyester factories are insufficient to form a negative feedback. In the context of the commodity market's enthusiastic sentiment, PTA prices are significantly boosted [2] - Overseas ethylene glycol (MEG) plant maintenance plans are increasing, with two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, scheduled to shut down next month due to poor profitability, and Saudi Arabian MEG plants starting planned maintenance. The inventory at East China MEG ports remains at 750,000 tons. Against the backdrop of continuously falling coal prices, MEG prices struggle to gain effective support. With the successive commissioning of new plants, market supply pressure continues to increase. The return of coal - based MEG plants exerts significant pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to recent domestic policy changes, and MEG prices may receive support under the carbon neutrality background [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Crude Oil: INE crude oil price rose from 434.8 yuan/barrel on December 29, 2025, to 436.1 yuan/barrel on December 30, 2025, an increase of 1.3 yuan/barrel [2] - PTA: PTA - SC increased from 1962.3 yuan/ton to 1974.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.55 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.6210 to 1.6231, an increase of 0.0021; CFR China PX increased from 891 to 894, an increase of 3; PX - naphtha spread increased from 349 to 359, an increase of 11; PTA main futures price rose from 5122 yuan/ton to 5144 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton; PTA spot price rose from 5065 yuan/ton to 5100 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; spot processing fee rose from 334.1 yuan/ton to 352.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.9 yuan/ton; disk processing fee rose from 391.1 yuan/ton to 396.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.9 yuan/ton; main basis rose from (63) to (50), an increase of 13; PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 114,648 to 107,482, a decrease of 7,166 [2] - MEG: MEG main futures price rose from 3817 yuan/ton to 3847 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (145.22) yuan/ton to (139.05) yuan/ton, an increase of 6.2 yuan/ton; MEG domestic price rose from 3687 yuan/ton to 3694 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton; main basis remained at - 140 [2] - Industrial Chain Operating Rates: PX operating rate remained at 86.28%; PTA operating rate remained at 74.63%; MEG operating rate remained at 61.76%; polyester load remained at 88.81% [2] - Polyester Products: POY150D/48F decreased from 6570 yuan/ton to 6545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; POY cash - flow decreased from (246) to (303), a decrease of 57; FDY150D/96F decreased from 6810 yuan/ton to 6760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; FDY cash - flow decreased from (506) to (588), a decrease of 82; DTY150D/48F decreased from 7760 yuan/ton to 7745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; DTY cash - flow decreased from (256) to (303), a decrease of 47; long - filament sales rate increased from 40% to 41%, an increase of 1%; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6620 yuan/ton to 6640 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; polyester staple fiber cash - flow decreased from 154 to 142, a decrease of 12; short - fiber sales rate increased from 52% to 54%, an increase of 2%; semi - bright chip increased from 5755 yuan/ton to 5760 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; chip cash - flow decreased from (161) to (188), a decrease of 27; chip sales rate increased from 51% to 81%, an increase of 30% [2] 3.2 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the northwest restarted after shutting down early last week [4]