迷雾中酝酿曙光——1月债券策略

Group 1 - The bond market in December remained in a volatile state, influenced by institutional behavior and concerns over potential risks in Q1, including government bond issuance and credit expansion impacts on bank credit [2][17] - The supply-demand imbalance for ultra-long bonds is a significant concern, with the issuance of super-long government bonds increasing substantially in recent years, particularly in 2025 [3][21] - The central economic work conference indicated that the fiscal deficit rate may remain at 4% in 2026, with only a slight expansion in government bond supply compared to 2025, despite concerns about the capacity of institutions to absorb large-scale local bond issuances [4][22] Group 2 - A total of 20 regions have announced their Q1 issuance plans, amounting to 1.688 trillion yuan, which is higher than the actual issuance in Q1 2025, indicating a more optimistic outlook for 2026 [4][23] - The anticipated net financing for government bonds in January, February, and March 2026 is estimated at 1.29 trillion, 0.86 trillion, and 1.25 trillion yuan respectively, totaling approximately 3.4 trillion yuan for the quarter, which is lower than the 4.1 trillion yuan in the same period of 2025 [35][32] - The central bank's monetary policy has shifted towards maintaining liquidity support, with a significant probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut in January, which could alleviate uncertainties regarding bank liabilities [6][60] Group 3 - The market is currently facing uncertainty regarding the impact of new public fund regulations, which aim to reshape the industry ecosystem without causing significant short-term disruptions [9][10] - Despite the ongoing concerns about credit expansion and its effects on bank liabilities, the central bank's recent statements suggest a more cautious approach to credit growth, potentially leading to a more stable liquidity environment [43][57] - The bond market may see opportunities for long-term bonds if extreme market fears do not materialize, with a focus on 3-5 year government bonds and perpetual bonds [10][8]