Report Industry Investment Ratings - No clear overall industry investment ratings are provided, but specific investment suggestions for various products are given, such as "bullish" for PVC, "bearish" for container shipping on the European line, and "suggested to buy on dips" for some metals [1] Core Views - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. The stock index is expected to remain strong in the short - term, while the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy but face interest - rate risks. Commodities show diverse trends, with some metals like nickel and stainless steel expected to be strong, and agricultural products and energy - chemical products having their own supply - demand and price trends [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Financial Products - Stock Index: The stock index has further risen, with increased trading volume, positive market sentiment, and liquidity. It has broken through the previous shock range and is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term [1] - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Metals - Copper: Although the industrial situation is weak, the positive macro - sentiment and the continuous premium of US copper have led to a further increase in copper prices. There is a short - term adjustment risk, but the upward trend is expected to remain [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, with limited industrial drivers, so the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short - term. The National Development and Reform Commission's policies on resource - constrained industries may affect the price of alumina, which has rebounded from an oversold state [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, with the cost center moving up. Most of the recent negative factors have been realized, but market sentiment is volatile, so the zinc price will fluctuate [1] - Nickel: Due to the expected reduction in Indonesia's nickel ore production in 2026 and concerns about supply, the Shanghai nickel price has risen significantly, and it may remain strong in the short - term. Short - term low - buying is recommended, but over - chasing high is not advisable [1] - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, and the social inventory of stainless steel has slightly decreased. Steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless steel futures may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and short - term low - buying is recommended [1] - Tin: The initiative of the non - ferrous tin industry branch to guide the price back to the normal range has pressured the tin price. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, there is still a possibility of supply fermentation. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities near the support level after a short - term correction [1] - Precious Metals: After a sharp adjustment, precious metals may gradually stabilize and enter a high - level shock in the short - term. It is recommended to focus on low - buying opportunities for gold in the follow - up [1] - Platinum and Palladium: After two consecutive daily limit drops, the futures - spot divergence has improved, and the premium over the foreign market has narrowed. In the short - term, they are expected to enter a range - bound shock. In the long - term, platinum can still be bought on dips or use the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage strategy [1] Energy - Chemical Products - Polysilicon and Silicone: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices but a low willingness to deliver, and short - term speculative sentiment is high [1] - Lithium Carbonate: The long - short positions in the futures - spot arbitrage can take rolling profits. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - Iron Ore: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward potential [1] - Black Metals: The black metal market is a combination of weak reality and strong expectation. The current direct demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory is accumulating, but energy - consumption control and anti - involution may affect supply [1] - Coke and Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the level of the fourth - round cut and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the price - cut implementation period [1] - Palm Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for the January USDA report [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Recent news has led to a significant rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent weakening fundamentals. It is expected to have a wide - range shock, and waiting and seeing is recommended [1] - Cotton: The domestic new crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start - up rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a state of "supported but without a driver" [1] - Sugar: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1] - Corn: The grass - roots grain sales progress of corn is fast, and the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low. Most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the mid - downstream restocking demand [1] - Soybeans: The domestic rumor of customs control on soybean imports is beneficial to the near - month contracts and the long - short arbitrage. The US soybean exports are weak, and the South American weather has no obvious speculation drivers [1] - Paper Pulp: The paper pulp futures are affected by the "weak demand" reality and the "strong supply" expectation, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider the 1 - 5 inverse spread [1] - Log Fibreboard: Affected by the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure as it approaches the delivery month and is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil exports affect the price [1] - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short - term. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - BR Rubber: The raw material cost has strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may show a cumulative trend [1] - PTA: The PX price is strong, the PTA device maintains a high load, the polyester pre - holiday inventory and sales have improved, and the new polyester device has been put into production, maintaining a high consumption of PTA [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Two MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production next month. After a continuous decline, it rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news. The downstream polyester start - up rate is high, and the overall sales are high [1] - Styrene: The price of Asian styrene has rebounded briefly after continuous decline, mainly due to supply - side contraction. The demand for polymer downstream products is weak, but the warming of the commodity market sentiment has significantly boosted the styrene futures price [1] - PE: The number of overhauls has decreased, the operating load is high, and the supply has increased. The downstream demand has weakened, the crude oil price has decreased, and the market expectation is weak in 2026 [1] - PP: The number of overhauls is small, the operating load is high, and the supply pressure is large. The downstream improvement is less than expected, but the high price of propylene monomers and the rising crude oil price provide strong cost support [1] - PVC: The global production capacity will be less in 2026, and the future is expected to reach the bottom of the cycle. There will be less subsequent overhauls, new production capacity will be released, supply pressure will increase, and demand will weaken [1] - Caustic Soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. The operating load is high, and there is inventory pressure in Shandong, with a price - cut pressure [1] - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the fundamental loosening logic. The CP/FEI has recently rebounded, the northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth, with no inventory pressure [1] Others - Container Shipping on the European Line: The price increase in December was less than expected, the expectation of price increase in the peak season was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply was relatively loose in December, so it is bearish [1]
日度策略参考-20251231
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-12-31 05:05