Economic Indicators - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from November, marking the first return to expansion since April[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for December was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from November, with the construction index at 52.8%, rising 3.2 percentage points[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased by 1.0 percentage point to 50.7% in December[1] Policy Impact - The recovery in market demand is attributed to effective growth stabilization policies, including the introduction of two 500 billion yuan policies, which have positively impacted infrastructure and manufacturing investments[2] - The issuance of an additional 500 billion yuan in special bonds is expected to provide 200 billion yuan in new funding for project construction, further stimulating domestic demand[2] Sector Performance - The manufacturing new orders index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8%, driven by strong market demand and resilient export conditions, with the new export orders index increasing by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%[2] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI increased by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7%, contributing significantly to the overall PMI rise[3] - The construction PMI returned to expansion at 52.8%, primarily due to the impact of new policy financial tools and favorable weather conditions in southern provinces[5] Challenges and Outlook - The service sector PMI remained in contraction at 49.7%, despite a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating ongoing weak consumer demand, particularly in retail and dining sectors[4][5] - The overall economic outlook suggests continued support from growth stabilization policies, but challenges remain due to high tariffs affecting global trade and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[6]
2025年12月PMI数据点评：稳增长政策发力显效，12月宏观经济景气度超预期回升
Dong Fang Jin Cheng·2025-12-31 05:05