航运衍生品数据日报-20251231

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the shipping industry is to wait and see [9] 2. Core Viewpoint - The European container shipping market shows a trend of "simultaneous strengthening of futures and spot". Freight rates have rebounded for multiple consecutive weeks, with both spot and futures prices rising steadily. Shipping companies are strongly willing to control cabins and support prices. The demand side benefits from pre - Spring Festival stocking and restocking needs, and the cabin loading rate has improved. On the supply side, empty sailings have decreased, and effective capacity has tightened. The Red Sea situation has marginally eased, and some airlines are tentatively resuming flights, but overall they remain cautious. Freight rates may peak in early January, and the market faces adjustment pressure depending on demand sustainability and flight resumption progress [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - The current values of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1656, 1147, 2188, 962, 3033, 1690, 1589, and 3143 respectively. Their previous values were 1553, 1125, 1992, 924, 2846, 1533, 1510, and 2833 respectively, with corresponding increases of 6.66%, 1.95%, 9.84%, 4.11%, 6.57%, 10.24%, 5.23%, and 10.94% [4] 3.2 Spot Price - For the Gemini Alliance (MSK, HPL), MSK's freight rate in the second week of January rose to $2540/FEU, a $40 increase compared to the previous sailing. HPL - SPOT's price decreased from $3535/FEU in the first half of January to $3035/FEU, with an expected increase back to $3535/FEU in the second half of January. - For the OCEAN Alliance (OOCL, CMA), OOCL's freight rate in the first half of January remained flat at $3180 - 3230/FEU, and CMA's freight rate increased slightly from $3245/FEU to $3293/FEU. - For the MSG&PA Alliance (ONE, YML), ONE has an expected online increase to $2836/FEU in the second half of January, consistent with the announced increase in the first half. YML's offline quote is $2800/FEU, with special offers for larger volumes [7] 3.3 Market Information - Houthi movement leader Abdul - Malik al - Houthi warned that a new round of conflict with Israel is "certain and inevitable". Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hopes to reach a framework agreement to end the war when meeting with US President Trump. Trump plans to announce multiple major measures on the Gaza issue in early January, depending on his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu [5] 3.4 Market Trend - The market is in a volatile state [6]