光大期货软商品日报-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, ICE US cotton dropped 0.08% to 64.3 cents per pound on Tuesday, while the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 0.52% to 14,560 yuan per ton, with the position increasing by 7,966 lots to 876,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,280 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan. The international market has limited drivers, with US cotton in low - level oscillation. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton main contract increased in position and price, with market divergence. The market expects a reduction in cotton planting area in the new year, and there are also expectations for the adjustment of the cotton target price subsidy policy. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton may adjust but has support at the bottom. The future focuses are the downstream textile enterprises' pre - Spring Festival restocking demand, possible macro - level reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the first quarter of next year, and the details of the new round of cotton target price subsidy policy usually announced around April 10th [1]. - For sugar, the spot quotes of sugar groups in different regions remained stable. Raw sugar prices fell by more than 2% at night and returned to the oscillation range. The market is dominated by the northern hemisphere's pressing rhythm. The domestic spot trading is tepid, and there is still some purchasing demand before the Spring Festival, which supports the price, but the market is cautious due to the increasing production situation, and it is difficult for the price to rise [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring | Variety | Contract Spread | Latest | Change | Main Basis | Change | Spot Location | Latest | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | 50 | 15 | 983 | - 123 | Xinjiang | 15,385 | 0 | | | | | | | | National | 15,543 | 2 | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 10 | - 13 | 142 | - 5 | Nanning | 5,360 | 0 | | | | | | | | Liuzhou | 5,400 | 0 | [2] 3.2 Market Information - On December 30, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 5,212, an increase of 127 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 3,973 [3]. - On December 30, the arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: Xinjiang 15,385 yuan/ton, Henan 15,581 yuan/ton, Shandong 15,581 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 15,635 yuan/ton [3]. - On December 30, the comprehensive load of yarn was 49.7, a decrease of 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 27, a decrease of 0.2 from the previous day; the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 50.8, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 32.4, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - On December 30, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Liuzhou, it was 5,400 yuan/ton, also unchanged [3]. - On December 30, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 5,182, an increase of 144 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 2,991 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the internal and external spread under 1% tariff quota, the warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and the price index [6][8][9][10][11][13][14][16]. 3.4 Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, participates in major projects of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and writing of series books of the China Futures Association, and has won many awards [18]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is in charge of research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, participates in large - scale projects and topics, and has won many honors [19]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy, participates in relevant topic writing of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and has won awards [20].