2026 商品年度报告：弱现实强预期，供需共振震荡向暖

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the core logic of the Zhengzhou cotton market will revolve around the adjustment of Xinjiang's direct subsidy policy and the marginal repair of demand, and the market is expected to show characteristics of "strengthened bottom support and an upward shift in the range - bound oscillation" [4]. - The global cotton supply is unlikely to increase significantly, and the slow reduction of the previously excessive inventory will gradually push the global supply - demand pattern from a loose to a tight balance [115]. - The improvement in demand is more likely to be "gradual" rather than a rapid rebound. The domestic textile industry has resilience, and overseas restocking demand has the potential to be released [116]. - Throughout 2026, the cotton price will be under pressure in the short - term at the beginning of the year, and the price center may gradually rise after the second quarter. In the fourth quarter, if the tight - balance pattern of supply and demand is consolidated, the cotton price is expected to further repair its valuation [117]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Market Review - In the Zhengzhou cotton market in 2025, the cotton price showed a step - by - step downward trend in the first half of the year, with fluctuations due to factors such as policy expectations, trade frictions, and supply - demand relationships. In the second half of the year, it was affected by factors such as the expectation of supply shortage and the release of downstream demand, showing a volatile upward trend [11]. - In the US cotton market in 2025, due to factors such as the high inventory of old crops in major producing areas, the repeated Sino - US tariff policies, and the lack of Chinese buying, the price remained in a low - level oscillation range of 60 - 70 cents per pound in the first half of the year, and the oscillation center dropped to 65 cents per pound in the second half of the year [12]. 3.2 Overseas Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Global Supply - Demand Balance Overview - According to the December USDA report, the marginal adjustment of the global cotton market is relatively small, with a neutral - bearish impact on the global market. The global cotton output is slightly reduced, consumption is slightly decreased, trade volume is slightly adjusted downward, and the ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio are slightly increased [13][14][16]. 3.2.2 US Market Supply - Demand Situation - In the 2025/2026 season, the US cotton production is slightly reduced. Although the planting area decreased due to the low cotton - grain price ratio, the favorable weather during the planting season led to a smaller - than - expected decline in the harvested area and an increase in yield per unit, offsetting some of the early - stage production reduction expectations [23]. - The US cotton export contract performance is poor, but there is a chance of recovery in 2026. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the increase in global textile demand will provide opportunities for the recovery of US cotton exports [30]. - The US cotton valuation is at a low level, and the relatively high inventory - to - consumption ratio restricts the upward space of the price. In the short - to - medium - term, the US cotton price may still face upward pressure [34]. 3.2.3 Brazilian Market Supply - Demand Situation - In the 2024/2025 season, the Brazilian cotton output increased, and the export scale in the 2025/2026 season is expected to reach a new high. However, due to the low "grain - cotton price ratio" and the expected deterioration of weather conditions, the cotton production in 2026 is expected to decline [39][40]. 3.2.4 Indian Market Supply - Demand Situation - In the 2024/2025 season, the Indian cotton market showed the characteristics of "decreased production and increased imports", and the supply pattern was dominated by import supplementation. In the 2025/2026 season, the production is slightly reduced, and the ending inventory pressure is relatively large [44]. 3.3 Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand Situation 3.3.1 China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Under the USDA's caliber, the estimated cotton output in the 2025/2026 season is 729.3 million tons, the consumption is 838.16 million tons, and the import is 117.56 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is at a relatively neutral level in the past three years [46]. - Under the BCO's caliber, the estimated output in the 2025/2026 season is 768 million tons, the consumption is 858 million tons, and the import is 120 million tons. The short - to - medium - term inventory pressure may be higher than that in the 2024/2025 season, but it is still relatively loose [46]. 3.3.2 Cost - The cost of lint cotton in the new year is stable, and the processing and sales of new cotton are relatively fast. The cost of lint cotton is roughly locked in the range of 14,374 - 15,246 yuan per ton, and the hedging pressure on the futures market has been greatly relieved [53]. 3.3.3 Output - The cotton output in the 2025/2026 season reaches a peak in the past ten years, but there are still narrow fluctuations. The output in Xinjiang is expected to increase by 7% - 10% year - on - year. The new direct subsidy policy in Xinjiang may lead to a reduction in production, and the weather conditions during the planting period in 2026 are expected to be worse than those in the 2024 - 2025 period [56][59]. 3.3.4 Import - In the 2024/2025 season, China's cotton imports are at a low level. In the 2025/2026 season, the expected upper limit of imports is limited, with an estimated import volume of about 110 - 120 million tons. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to US cotton exports to China, but the short - to - medium - term import pressure of US cotton may increase [65][66]. 3.3.5 Inventory - Affected by the high - yield in the 2025/2026 season, China's commercial cotton inventory is at a high level in recent years. However, due to the strong downstream consumption resilience, the inventory reduction is better than expected. The inventory of some sample enterprises' pure - cotton yarn is relatively high, while the overall inventory level of textile enterprises in the grey fabric and yarn links is relatively low [74][79]. 3.3.6 Demand - Load and Profit: In 2025, the overall starting rate of spinning mills is at a relatively low level, but the resilience after the "Golden September and Silver October" is better than expected. The immediate profit of textile enterprises shows a trend of "decline - repair - re - pressure". The continuous expansion of Xinjiang's cotton - spinning capacity is expected to support the cotton demand in the 2025/2026 season to remain flat or increase slightly [83][85][86]. - Retail and Consumption: From January to November 2025, the cumulative monthly retail sales of clothing by Chinese enterprises above the designated size increased moderately year - on - year. In the long - term, due to factors such as population structure changes, domestic terminal cotton - related consumption is still mainly based on rigid demand [90][94]. - Export: In November 2025, the decline in textile and clothing exports narrowed, and textile exports resumed growth. The export showed a pattern of "trading volume with price", and the export price of cotton yarn and clothing is at a low level in recent years. The optimization of Sino - US trade relations and the low inventory in the US market provide opportunities for the release of overseas restocking demand [102][106][114]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In 2026, the Zhengzhou cotton price is expected to strengthen its bottom support and gradually rise in the range - bound oscillation. The supply side will gradually shift from a loose to a tight balance, and the demand side will gradually recover. The cotton price will be under pressure in the short - term at the beginning of the year and may rise gradually after the second quarter. In the fourth quarter, if the tight - balance pattern of supply and demand is consolidated, the cotton price is expected to further repair its valuation [115][116][117].