郑棉偏强震荡，白糖弱势整理

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of cotton, sugar, and pulp, providing investment strategies based on supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and market news [2][5][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2605 contract closed at 14,560 yuan/ton yesterday, up 125 yuan/ton (+0.87%) from the previous day. Spot: Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,384 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; national average price was 15,543 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1] - In Pakistan, cotton area weather is mild and dry, with winter rainfall scarce. Daily arrival of seed cotton is below 1,550 tons, and total new cotton output is expected to be 1.085 - 1.124 million tons [1] Market Analysis - International: 12 - month USDA global cotton supply - demand adjustment is small. 25/26 global cotton production and demand both decrease, with a slight increase in ending stocks. US cotton production increases, with increased inventory pressure. Short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, but long - term decline space is limited [2] - Domestic: 25/26 domestic cotton production increases significantly. As new cotton sales progress, hedging resistance weakens. Demand improves near holidays, but downstream orders decline, inventory rises, and demand weakens marginally [2] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Domestic cotton consumption is expected to increase due to expanded spinning capacity. With high production and consumption and low imports, supply - demand is not expected to be loose. Considering the expected decline in Xinjiang's planting area, long - term cotton prices are bullish, but short - term high - level corrections should be watched [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,258 yuan/ton yesterday, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.10%). Spot: Guangxi Nanning price was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - India's January 2026 sugar domestic sales quota is 2.2 million tons, down 50,000 tons from January 2025 [3] Market Analysis - International: 25/26 global sugar is in surplus. Short - term decline space is limited due to Brazil's harvest and India's slow exports, but rebound momentum is restricted [4] - Domestic: 25/26 domestic sugar production increases. Import pressure is high, but syrup control is tightening, and next year's syrup and premix imports may decrease [5] Strategy - Neutral. Domestic fundamentals are bearish. Although the valuation is low, the market may bottom out again, but the decline space is limited. Short - and medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate and bottom [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,568 yuan/ton yesterday, up 58 yuan/ton (+1.05%). Spot: Shandong Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp price was 5,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; Russian softwood pulp price was 5,175 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - Imported wood pulp spot market was stable. Futures fluctuated. Softwood pulp traders kept prices stable, and downstream procurement was cautious. Hardwood pulp supply was tight, and traders were reluctant to sell [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. Domtar closed Crofton paper mill, and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill will be shut down temporarily [7] - Demand: European port pulp inventory decreased in October. Domestic terminal demand is insufficient, but port inventory has declined recently, and future paper capacity expansion may support pulp prices [7] Strategy - Neutral. Overseas supply disruptions and pre - Spring Festival restocking expectations may lead to a mild recovery in domestic demand. Short - term pulp prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but the increase depends on demand improvement and inventory digestion [8]