养殖油脂产业链日报策略报告-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, South American soybean growth is good with high probability of a bumper harvest, and US soybean export progress is slow, leading to a weak trend in CBOT soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, concerns about subsequent soybean customs clearance time drive up domestic soybean prices [3][5]. - For edible oils, soybean oil inventory is declining, and it is expected to be strong in January but prone to decline in the medium - long term; rapeseed oil is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with the core of the future market depending on the evolution of China - Canada trade relations in 2026; palm oil is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with the potential for a price boost from the expected poor outlook in 2026 [3][4]. - For feed products, soybean meal is expected to be strong in the short - term but not recommended for chasing high prices; rapeseed meal may maintain a volatile pattern; corn is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, and short - term long positions are recommended [5][6]. - For livestock products, the live pig futures price is in a weak shock, and it is recommended to wait for capacity reduction to be confirmed before buying at low prices; the egg futures price has fallen below historical lows, and it is recommended to avoid short - selling blindly and consider buying at low prices for the 2605 contract [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 05 | High auction transaction rate and premium transactions of domestic soybeans, improved sentiment. Abundant domestic soybean supply and good growth of South American soybeans. | 4060 - 4080 | 4270 - 4280 | Bullish shock | Hold short - term long positions [11] | | | Soybean No.2 05 | Good growth of South American soybeans. Pay attention to recent soybean customs clearance inspection. | 3350 - 3380 | 3530 - 3550 | Rise first then fall | Short on rebounds [11] | | | Soybean oil 05 | Sufficient domestic soybean oil supply. The promotion of international biodiesel policies may fall short of expectations. | 7600 - 7650 | 7900 - 7950 | Shock | Wait and see [11] | | | Rapeseed oil 05 | Australian rapeseed has not entered the crushing process, and domestic inventory continues to decline. | 8650 - 8700 | 9500 - 9550 | Volatile | Wait and see [11] | | Fats and Oils | Palm oil 05 | Previous negative factors are exhausted, and the fundamentals of the main producing areas have improved but limited. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board expects a poor outlook for palm oil in 2026. | 8300 - 8350 | 8700 - 8750 | Bullish shock | Go long on dips [11] | | Protein | Soybean meal 05 | Sufficient supply. Pay attention to recent soybean customs clearance. | 2650 - 2680 | 2830 - 2850 | Rise first then fall | Short on rebounds [11] | | | Rapeseed meal 05 | The expected increase in supply has not been realized, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The market lacks effective drivers. | 2270 - 2300 | 2440 - 2450 | Volatile | Wait and see [11] | | Energy and By - products | Corn 03 | Poor quality of North China corn, structural contradictions still exist. The recent market is disturbed by the news of imported corn auctions, with some pressure, but overall futures prices are expected to remain within a range. | 2160 - 2170 | 2300 - 2320 | Bullish shock | Short - term long - term thinking [11] | | | Corn starch 03 | Fluctuates within a range following the cost of corn. | 2450 - 2460 | 2620 - 2640 | Bullish shock | Short - term long - term thinking [11] | | Livestock | Live pigs 03 | The price of feed stops falling and rebounds, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. | 11000 - 11300 | 12500 - 12800 | Find the bottom in shock | Try long positions with light positions [11] | | | Eggs 05 | Decrease in new production and expectation of peak consumption season. | 3300 - 3400 | 3650 - 3700 | Find the bottom in shock | Buy on dips [11] | 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For inter - month spreads, positive spreads are recommended for soybean No.2 3 - 5 and soybean meal 3 - 5, and short on rallies for corn 3 - 5. Other varieties are recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - For inter - commodity spreads, short positions are recommended for 05 rapeseed oil - soybean oil and 05 rapeseed oil - palm oil, and other varieties are recommended to wait and see [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The document provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties such as oilseeds, fats and oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Fats - Daily Data: It provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, including CNF prices, import duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [16][17]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory and operating rate data of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts. For example, soybean port inventory is 826.40 (- 5.28), and the soybean oil mill operating rate is 45.00% (- 10.00%) [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - Daily Data: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months [18]. - Weekly Data: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including deep - processing enterprise consumption, inventory, operating rate, and farmers' grain - selling progress [19]. 3.2.3 Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, costs, profits, slaughter data, and inventory data [20][21][22][24]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Livestock End (Live Pigs, Eggs): It includes charts of the closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and related cost and inventory data [26][28][29][33]. - Oilseeds and Fats: It includes charts of the production, export, inventory, and price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [37][44][53]. - Feed End: It includes charts of the price, basis, inventory, and consumption of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal [56][62][67][78]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Fats - It provides charts of the historical volatility of various varieties and the trading volume and open interest of corn options [89][90][91]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Fats - It provides charts of the warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, and live pigs [97][99][100].