2026商品年度报告双粕：主产国博弈年双粕行情不确定性增强

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global soybean supply outlook is generally optimistic due to improved global climate, but the uncertainty of global soybean supply will significantly increase under the China-US soybean purchase agreement. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to present more phased trading opportunities, and the market performance will be more complex and changeable compared to 2025. Attention should be paid to the planting area of US soybeans in 2026 and the stability of the China-US purchase agreement, as well as the phased and cost-driven opportunities to go long at low prices [4][118][119]. - The rapeseed meal market shows a pattern of tight supply domestically and loose supply internationally, and strong performance domestically and weak performance internationally due to trade policies. In 2026, the uncertainty risk of rapeseed meal market operation is relatively high. If the China-Canada rapeseed trade remains stagnant in 2026, domestic rapeseed meal can be considered for long positions at low prices, but the good international rapeseed supply situation will limit the upside space of rapeseed meal. Attention should be paid to the results of the China-Canada meeting before March and the quality and commercialization of Australian rapeseed pressing [4][5][119]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Annual Market Review of Double Meal - Soybean Meal Market: In the first quarter, the domestic soybean meal price rose due to insufficient rainfall in Argentina, the expected decline in the new-season planting area of US soybeans, and the uncertainty of trade frictions. In the second quarter, it first rose and then fell. In the third quarter, it also first rose and then fell. In the fourth quarter, it first rose and then fell again [11][12][14]. - Rapeseed Meal Market: In the first quarter, the price of rapeseed meal rose due to the tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed meal and then fell. In the second quarter, it first fell, then rebounded, and then fell again. In the third quarter, it first rose and then fell. In the fourth quarter, it showed a downward trend [17][18][19]. Chapter 2: Global Climate Gradually Turns Neutral - As of December 11, the La Nina phenomenon is expected to continue in the Northern Hemisphere for one to two months, with a 68% probability of turning neutral between January and March. The global climate in 2026 shows an obvious trend of improvement, increasing the probability of a good harvest of global crops, which may suppress the prices of soybean and rapeseed [20]. Chapter 3: International Soybean Market Supply and Demand Situation - Supply Situation in the Current and Next Years: In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean production, crushing volume, and export volume decreased, while the ending inventory increased. The production of Brazilian soybeans is expected to increase, while that of Argentine soybeans is expected to decrease [28]. - The Beginning and End of China-US Trade Tariffs in 2025: In April 2025, the China-US trade tariff war escalated, and then the two sides held talks and reached a consensus to suspend some tariff increases and cancel some non-tariff countermeasures [29][30][32]. - The Latest China-US Purchase Agreement and Its Multiple Impacts: China promised to purchase 1200000 tons of US soybeans by the end of 2025 and a minimum of 2500000 tons per year for the next three years. The agreement will increase the cost of domestic soybean and its products, stabilize the planting area of US soybeans in the new season, and the US biodiesel consumption end is expected to lack highlights [33][35][38]. - Poor Export of US Soybeans This Year and the Risk of Ending Inventory Increase: Due to the lack of early purchases of US soybeans by China, the export data of US soybeans this year will decline year-on-year, leading to an increase in the ending inventory [39]. - Improvement of Brazilian Weather Later and Considerable Absolute Yield: Although the early planting of Brazilian soybeans was affected by insufficient rainfall, the rainfall returned to normal in December, and the planting progress caught up. The export of Brazilian soybeans to China increased year-on-year [43][44][45]. - Expected Decline in Argentine Planting Area: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange predicts that the soybean planting area in Argentina in the 2025/26 season will decrease by 4.3% compared to the previous year [49]. - Argentina Reduced Taxes Multiple Times This Year to Boost Export and Earn Foreign Exchange: Argentina temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat, and then reduced the export tax on some agricultural products again [50][52]. - China Signed a Rapeseed Meal Import Agreement with Argentina: Although the import of Argentine rapeseed meal did not continue due to the sufficient domestic supply in the second half of the year, the signing of the agreement is of milestone significance [53][55]. Chapter 4: Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Market Supply Situation - Overall Year-on-Year Increase in Soybean Imports: In 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans in China from January to November increased year-on-year [57]. - Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Crushing and Inventory Situation: Due to the continuous and year-on-year increase in the arrival of domestic soybeans, the domestic soybean inventory increased significantly year-on-year. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills increased counter-cyclically in the fourth quarter, and the inventory of feed enterprises was generally higher than that of last year [60][62]. - Soybean Meal Basis: In 2025, the seasonal characteristics of the soybean meal basis were obvious. The basis reached the annual high in May and then declined. Due to the concerns about the supply shortage in the third and fourth quarters, the basis continued to rise slightly [68]. Chapter 5: International Rapeseed Market Supply Situation - Optimistic Global Rapeseed Production Situation: In the 2025/26 season, the global rapeseed production showed a restorative growth, which is negative for the performance of the rapeseed sector in 2026 [71]. - Stagnant China-Canada Trade Leads to a Slightly Tight Domestic Rapeseed Supply: Since August 2025, the China-Canada rapeseed trade has been stagnant, resulting in a decline in the domestic rapeseed and oil meal import supply. Attention should be paid to the new changes in the China-Canada trade relationship before the end of the investigation in March [72]. - Pilot Import of Australian Rapeseed: China started the import of Australian rapeseed in August 2025. As of December, more than a dozen ships of Australian rapeseed had been imported. The import of Australian rapeseed will gradually relieve the domestic supply shortage, but it is difficult to completely change the tight supply pattern in the short term [73]. - Significant Year-on-Year Increase in Indian Rapeseed Meal Imports: Due to the stagnant China-Canada rapeseed trade, the import of Indian rapeseed meal increased significantly, which may become the norm and relieve the domestic rapeseed meal supply situation [75]. Chapter 6: Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Market Supply Situation - Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Import Situation: In 2025, the cumulative import of rapeseed from January to November decreased year-on-year, and the import of rapeseed meal also decreased year-on-year [76][77]. - Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory Situation: Due to the stagnant China-Canada rapeseed trade, the rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills was zero in December, and the weekly crushing volume was also zero. The rapeseed meal inventory of coastal oil mills was zero, and the port granular meal inventory decreased compared to the same period last year [80][85]. - Rapeseed Meal Basis Situation: In 2025, the basis of each rapeseed meal contract showed different performances, and the basis of the May contract was relatively stronger. After China imposed an initial ruling on Canadian rapeseed in August, the basis of each contract weakened [88]. - Analysis of the Price Difference between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal: In 2025, the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in both futures and spot markets was lower than that of last year. The price difference began to recover in the third and fourth quarters [92]. Chapter 7: Domestic Downstream Aquaculture Market Situation - National Feed Production Situation: In November 2025, the national industrial feed production decreased month-on-month and increased year-on-year. From January to November, the feed production was higher than that of last year [95]. - Pig Market Inventory Situation: As of the end of October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased month-on-month and year-on-year. The pig inventory increased year-on-year, and the piglet sales volume was higher than that of last year. The pig feed consumption in 2026 is expected to decrease year-on-year, but the decline is not expected to be large [99][100][105]. - Laying Hen and White-Feathered Broiler Breeding Profit Situation: The inventory of laying hens was higher than that of last year, and the breeding profit continued to decline in the first half of the year. The breeding profit of white-feathered broilers fluctuated. The inventory of white-feathered broilers in 2026 is expected to remain at a high level, and the feed demand is expected to be stable or slightly increase [113][117]. Chapter 8: Price Outlook for the Double Meal Market - Soybean Meal Market: Internationally, the growth rate of the Brazilian soybean planting area has decreased significantly year-on-year, and the signing of the China-US soybean purchase agreement may be unfavorable for the export outlook of Brazilian soybeans. Domestically, the soybean import supply in 2026 is expected to be sufficient. The downstream feed consumption is expected to decrease slightly year-on-year. In 2026, the domestic soybean meal is expected to present more phased trading opportunities, and the market performance will be more complex and changeable [118][119]. - Rapeseed Meal Market: Internationally, the global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season has increased restoratively, which is negative for international rapeseed prices. Domestically, the China-Canada rapeseed trade has been stagnant, and the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports have shown a diversified state. If the China-Canada rapeseed trade remains stagnant in 2026, domestic rapeseed meal can be considered for long positions at low prices, but the good international rapeseed supply situation will limit the upside space of rapeseed meal [119][120][121].