蛋白数据日报-20251231

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Domestic reports of customs control on soybean imports are bullish for near-term contracts and positive spreads. Attention should be paid to customs policy dynamics and the auction of imported soybeans after New Year's Day. US soybean exports are weak, and there is currently no obvious speculative driver in South American weather. Brazilian premiums are expected to face pressure in the future, and the M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak. Overall, the market is expected to be stronger in the near term and weaker in the long term [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread Data - On December 30th, the Dalian basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) was 382, down 24; the Tianjin basis was 362, down 4; the Rizhao basis was 322, down 24. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was 342, down 14 [4] - The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 94, up 6 [4] - The RM1 - 5 spread was 69, down 9; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 536, down 10; the spot spread (Guangdong) was 300, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread on the main contract was 375, down 12 [5] International and Domestic Inventory Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9605, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 117.00 cents per bushel, up 2. The Brazilian soybean crushing margin on the futures market was 152 yuan per ton [5] - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a historically high level for the same period. The reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure on spot supply remains high. It is expected that the inventory will be reduced more rapidly from December to January. This week, the number of days of soybean meal inventory held by feed enterprises increased [7][8] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: According to CONAB data, the predicted output of Brazil's new soybean crop in the 25/26 season is 177.6 million tons. As of December 5th, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 90.3%, compared to 88% last week, 94.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 89.8%. According to BAGE, as of December 3rd, the soybean planting progress in Argentina was 4.7%, compared to 36% last week and 50% in the same period last year. There are no obvious short - term weather problems in the forecast. From December to January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to experience seasonal inventory reduction. There are rumors that customs have delayed the release of soybeans for 25 days, increasing concerns about domestic soybean supply in the first quarter of next year. Domestic auctions of imported soybeans have been held, with high transaction premiums. Attention should be paid to subsequent auction results [7] - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been normal, and the提货 performance has been good [7][8]