银河期货镍年报

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, without the disturbance of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, the nickel surplus is expected to slightly narrow to 245,000 tons, but the refined nickel surplus will increase by another 30,000 tons, intensifying inventory pressure [5][13][98]. - The surplus is concentrating on low - cost deliverable products, which may force nickel prices down to seek support from the cost of the wet - process production line [5][13][98]. - There are potential upward risks in stages. If the macro and industrial sectors resonate in the first half of the year and are accompanied by capital inflows, the upward trend at the end of 2025 may continue. However, if the nickel ore quota increases or the inventory becomes explicit, there may be opportunities for high - altitude short - selling in the second half of the year [5][98] - The recommended trading strategies are a unilateral strategy of rising first and then falling with a rising bottom, and a bull spread strategy for options [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the nickel price shock center shifted down after the trade war, hitting a five - year low in December and then rebounding due to Indonesia's policy. The volatility significantly narrowed compared to the previous year. The annual high - low difference was about 20% [4][9]. - Stainless steel prices followed nickel prices but were more rigidly supported by the cost of Indonesian nickel iron. The terminal demand was weak, showing a narrow - range shock trend with a high - low difference of about 12% throughout the year [4][10] 3.2 Excess Concentration on Low - Cost Deliverable Products, Beware of Indonesia's Policy Risks - Supply - Side Growth Concentrates on Wet - Process Production Lines, with Fire - Process Production Almost Stagnant - In 2026, the growth rate of refined nickel is expected to increase to 6.8%, becoming the highest - growth category. China and Indonesia will have new production capacity, while some European and American enterprises will also expand production [18][19]. - The expansion of MHP production capacity conforms to the new - energy orientation, helping to expand production and reduce costs for refined nickel and nickel sulfate. It is conservatively estimated that Indonesia's MHP output will increase by 28% to 570,000 tons in 2026 [27]. - The growth of nickel pig iron (NPI) is almost stagnant. Affected by Indonesia's policy and low profits, the growth rate of Indonesian NPI in 2026 is only expected to be 2.4% [18][34][36]. - Indonesia's Nickel Ore Quota Policy Risks Still Need Attention - The supply forecast for 2026 is based on the assumption of sufficient nickel ore. In 2026, the quota may be set at 250 million tons, which is lower than the demand. However, there is still flexibility in the later stage [46][49]. - If the quota remains at 250 million tons, Indonesia needs to import 70 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, which will increase the cost of nickel products and may support the bottom of nickel prices [49][52] 3.3 Demand Hard to Find Drivers, with Potential Bright Spots - Economic Growth Slows, Interest Rate Cuts Benefit the Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - In 2026, the global economic growth will further slow down. The growth rate of developed economies is expected to be around 1.5%, and that of emerging markets and developing economies is slightly higher than 4% [59]. - China's economy is still at the bottom, and it is expected that fiscal policy tools will play a role in the "15th Five - Year Plan" [59]. - Stainless Steel Supply and Demand in Tight Balance, Cost Expected to Increase - In terms of demand, China's stainless steel demand is expected to grow by 4% in 2026. Domestic consumption may be supported by subsidies, while exports may decline [64][65]. - In terms of supply, new production capacity is limited. In 2026, nickel and chromium raw materials may rise, increasing the cost of stainless steel. If demand improves, the price center may move up; otherwise, it may suppress production capacity utilization [68][71] - The Proportion of Ternary Batteries Stabilizes, and New Productivity Provides Potential Growth Points - The growth rate of the new - energy vehicle market slows down. In China, due to subsidy withdrawal, the growth rate of new - energy passenger vehicle sales is expected to be 16%. In the overseas market, the US market is weak, while the European market is expected to maintain growth [78][79][83]. - The proportion of ternary batteries has fallen below 20%. Although it faces challenges, it may become a potential growth point from 2027 - 2030 [88][91][93] 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance and Trading Strategy - In 2025, the estimated surplus of primary nickel is 277,000 tons. In 2026, without the impact of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, the surplus is expected to narrow to 245,000 tons, but the refined nickel surplus will increase by 30,000 tons [98][99]. - The trading logic is to consider the continuation of the upward trend at the end of 2025 in the first half of 2026 if the macro and industry resonate. In the second half, consider high - altitude short - selling if the nickel ore quota increases or the inventory becomes explicit [5][98]