每日投资策略-20251231

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,855, up 0.86% for the day and 28.89% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.74%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 24.85% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index remained unchanged at 3,965, with an 18.30% increase year-to-date [1] - The US markets showed slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.20% and the S&P 500 down 0.14% [1] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 0.44%, with a year-to-date rise of 40.32% [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index rose by 1.15%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 24.53% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index saw a modest increase of 0.34%, with an 18.61% rise year-to-date [2] Chinese Market Dynamics - Chinese stocks experienced a slight increase, with energy, materials, and information technology sectors leading gains, while healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples sectors declined [3] - Southbound capital recorded a net sell-off of HKD 3.845 billion, with Tencent, China Mobile, and Alibaba seeing the most significant net sell-offs [3] - The Chinese government announced tax exemptions on personal home sales after two years to stimulate market activity [3] US Market Insights - The US stock market experienced slight declines, particularly in consumer discretionary, financials, and industrials, while energy, communication services, and utilities sectors showed gains [3] - Tesla's market analysis indicated a potential 15% year-over-year decline in Q4 vehicle deliveries due to tax credit reductions and increased competition [3] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes suggested a consensus on potential interest rate cuts if inflation trends downward, although some members expressed concerns about persistent inflation risks [3] Commodity and Currency Movements - Metal prices showed mixed trends, with gold's gains narrowing and silver rebounding; copper prices reached their highest annual increase since 2009 [3] - Oil prices experienced a slight decline, while cryptocurrencies saw a pullback after initial gains [3] - The USD/CNY exchange rate fell to around 6.99 [3]